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Big 12 College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 7 Edition

The picks keep on hitting! After going 4-1 last week, we are now 20-12-2 on the season… on to Week 7!

Texas Tech @ Kansas

I’ve said it every week, so I’ll say it again. Poor Kansas. They likely won’t be less than a 3 touchdown underdog in any game left on their schedule. Texas Tech comes to town to wrap up the soft part of their schedule (Iowa State, KU, back-to-back), before going on the road to take on Oklahoma.

Kliff Kingsbury has spoken all season long about the “killer instinct” that he wants his Red Raiders to possess and there is no better opponent to showcase that against. And while Kingsbury knows KU coach David Beaty from their days together at A&M, it’s too hard for teams not to run up scores on Kansas.

Montell Cozart is once again out for KU, leaving freshman Ryan Willis in at QB against a Tech team that is finally starting to force turnovers under new coordinator David Gibbs.  The only thing that will slow down Tech is weather, but that won’t be an issue (63, sunny). Tech enters averaging 52 points per game, expect 60+ against KU. So, do I think Kansas can score 28 points? Nope.

The Pick: Texas Tech -32

Oklahoma @ Kansas State

This line reminds me very much of last week’s Oklahoma/Texas spread, when OU was favored by an absurd 17 points. OU was coming off a big win over WVU, while Texas was coming off a blowout defeat against TCU, and the line was an overreaction. This game has the same feel; Oklahoma off their stunning defeat against Texas and Kansas State took TCU right down to the wire.

If OU wants any shot at staying in the Big 12 race, they have to win this game. OU’s new air raid offense should have a field day against a very young secondary that was torched in the second half last week against TCU. Kansas State’s passing game is nonexistent, so OU’s defense can focus on the run game, which they struggled with last week. Only chance K-State has is to control the ball for 35+ minutes with QB Joe Hubener being effective on the ground. But, after a brutal loss to TCU, K-State is too one-dimensional to hang in against OU. Bob Stoops hasn’t lost back to back games in the regular season since 1999, while OU has won 5 in a row at K-State.

The Pick: Oklahoma -4

Baylor vs. West Virginia

Despite being the #2 team in the country, Baylor has only played one decent opponent in Texas Tech. The Bears other wins are over SMU, Lamar, Rice and Kansas. They would love to make another statement over a mediocre opponent.

West Virginia’s defense is much improved from recent seasons, but have allowed an average 395 yards/game against OU and Oklahoma State. Now, WVU goes up against the best QB/ WR combo they have seen all season in Seth Russell/Corey Coleman. Also, the Mountaineers aren’t the same team on the road. As for Baylor, they’re 8-0 in the new McLane Stadium, winning games by an average of 34 points.

Plus, let’s not forget the ultimate motivating factor here: Baylor’s only loss last season was to West Virginia (in Morgantown). Last time these two teams met in Waco (2013), it was a Baylor leading 56-14 … at halftime.

The Pick: Baylor -20

TCU @ Iowa State

So, Patrick Mahomes and the Texas Tech offense hung 66 on the Cyclones last week. Now, Iowa State takes on TCU, who is essentially Texas Tech on steroids offensively. QB Trevone Boykin is better than Pat Mahomes and the TCU wide receivers are much better than Tech’s. This is going to make for a very long afternoon for Iowa State. These two teams met the final week of the season last year, ending up with a Frogs 55-3 win. Sure, TCU’s defense was much better last season, but the talent gap is just too large to overcome.

Offensively, Iowa State hasn’t been as good as many expected. There have been discussions about replacing Sam Richardson at QB because he’s been incredibly sporadic. The biggest bright spot has been freshman running back Mike Warren, who could have a big day against a TCU D allowing 183 rushing yards/game. But, it still won’t be enough.

The Pick: TCU -20

 

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