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Big 12 College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 12 Edition

Unfortunately it was our second straight 2-3 week, putting us at 32-22-2 on the season. Off to Week 12:

West Virginia @ Kansas

Well, Kansas was a 45-point dog against TCU last week, and only loss by 6. Damn impressive. Can that carry over to this week?
I hate these Kansas games because they are total gut calls. The stats of course say the game will be a blow out. WVU RB Wendell Smallwood is averaging 6.7 YPC and now faces a KU defense that is allowing 5.6 YPC. Meantime, the Kansas offense is ranked well below 100 (out of 128 teams), in every major offensive statistical category.
Last week was a fluke. KU put up some points against a very leaky TCU D. The Mountaineers are in the easy part of their schedule and now get to take on KU for a chance to become bowl eligible. I can’t see WVU sleepwalking through this game.
The Pick: WVU -26.5
Iowa State @ Kansas State
Kansas State continues to struggle, 0-6 in Big 12 play, while Iowa State isn’t much better at 2-5. But, the Cyclones had a 17-point lead on the Oklahoma State Cowboys last week and have looked much better offensively since firing offensive coordinator Mark Mangino.
Defensively, Iowa State’s biggest issue has been facing team’s with high power passing attacks (see: Oklahoma game). But, they’ve had success against run-oriented teams (see: Texas game). Now, they get a Kansas State team that has thrown just 4 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in the past 4 games, and just once in the past 5 games have the Wildcats completed more than half their passes.
Paul Rhoads is still coaching for his job in Ames and this is a nice chance for him to get a win in the ‘Farmageddon’ rivalry game. Either way, I love the Cyclones as an underdog.
The Pick: Iowa State +5.5
#6 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Baylor
The line was off for this game because of the uncertainty surrounding Baylor QB Jarrett Stidham. Well, it opened Saturday morning with the Oklahoma State Cowboys getting no respect as 3-point dogs. I understand that the Cowboys have trailed by 17-points twice this season to mediocre opponents, but they’re undefeated.Meantime, Baylor QB Stidham looked rattled at times on the road against OU. That’s understandable, he’s a freshman.
Oklahoma State isn’t the perfect team, but I think they’ll continue with their perfect record. I can’t go with the freshman QB on the road in a tough environment against a team eyeing a spot in the CFB Playoff.
The Pick: Oklahoma State +3
#7 Oklahoma vs. #18 TCU
Stats aside, this game scares me. According to Sports Insight, 83% of the money is coming in on the Sooners. The line opened with the Sooners -10 before jumping to -12, and moving back down to -11.
I understand why the money is coming in on OU. They are playing as well as anyone in the country, TCU looked sluggish against a horrible Kansas team, the Horned Frogs have a question mark with the health of QB Trevone Boykin and are without top WR Josh Doctson for the rest of the season with a wrist injury.
Since losing to Texas, Oklahoma has won all their games by an average margin of 55-17. Now, OU QB Baker Mayfield, quickly putting his name in the Heisman discussion, gets a TCU secondary that is young, banged up, and has been torched by the better Big 12 teams. Also, the Sooners get a primetime slot with another chance to impress the nation. The only reason to like TCU to cover is because of some blind faith in Gary Patterson. But, I’m not going there.
The Pick: Oklahoma -12

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