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Big 12 College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 13 Edition

We went 2-2 last week, putting us at 34-24-2 on the season. Here’s to a great Thanksgiving week of picks!

Texas vs. Texas Tech

This has been a one-sided contest for the better part of two decades. Tech has not beaten the Longhorns since 2008, and they haven’t won in Austin since 1997. But, that will change on Thanksgiving night.

The Longhorns continue to struggle against teams that can rapidly move the chains. Offensively, the Longhorns could pound the ball on Tech, one of the Red Raiders’ biggest weaknesses. But, UT is expected to be without rushers D’Onta Foreman (surgery) and Johnathan Gray (turf toe), along with offensive lineman Patrick   Vahe (knee). Without those key parts, Texas’ running game won’t be nearly as potent.

The public is favoring Tech, but the big $ is coming in on the Texas.  I’m rolling with the public as Tech will be pumped up to score a big win on national TV over the hated Longhorns.

The Pick: Texas Tech -2

Baylor @ TCU

Wow, remember when this game was supposed to be the de facto Big 12 Championship game? Me too. Baylor has more to play for as they are still in the hunt for the Big 12 Title and a chance at the CFB Playoff. Baylor is likely to be on third string QB Chris Johnson, while TCU is completely decimated, but is expected to get back QB Trevone Boykin. Johnson looked good in his action last week against Oklahoma State (5-10, 138 yards, 2 TDs), and with his strong crop of WR’s, I don’t expect anything different.

Both teams have stronger ground attacks than they get credit for and their respective run defenses are both top 3 as well. Let’s call that a wash.

TCU is emotionally finished after a season that has come up short of expectations, injuries all over, and a heartbreaking finish against the Sooners last week. Baylor has far more on the line.

The Pick: Baylor +2

West Virginia vs. Iowa State

In what is going to be an emotional final game for Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads, the Cyclones have a tough test going on the road to Morgantown. Meantime, the Mountaineers have their eyes set on a decent bowl game and the No. 5 position in the Big 12.

Iowa State’s offense has improved a ton since letting go Mark Mangino as OC and putting Joel Lanning in at QB. The rushing game has greatly benefited with 232 yards or more in four of their last five. While, WVU’s run defense has been average at best, allowing 227 yards or more in 3 of 4 before stopping Kansas. Meantime, WVU has been a hit-or-miss passing game, but they’ll need to be on to cover this spread.

Iowa State will once again keep it close against a solid opponent, cover the spread, but come up short.

The Pick: Iowa State +14

Kansas State vs. Kansas

Amazingly, the Wildcats can still become bowl eligible if they win their last two games, and it starts this weekend against an incredibly poor Kansas squad. The Wildcats have only been able to have success on the ground this season, which is a good thing considering the Jayhawks have allowed over 200 rushing yards in every game since their opener. In addition, KU could likely be without Fish Smithton bounce back from his ankle injury and return this week? He’s the team’s best tackler, and could be out with an ankle injury. Despite being 1-6, the Wildcats have had a few close calls throughout the season, and I believe much of their frustrations will be taken out on Kansas.

Not much to see here as Kansas’ miserable season comes to an end.

The Pick: Kansas State -20

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma

Wow, even with Oklahoma State’s loss to Baylor last week, this is arguably as big a Bedlam game as there’s ever been.

Luckily for the Sooners, with their playoff hopes on the line, it appears that the Sooners will have Baker Mayfield in at QB. Still, does Mayfield have any after effects from his concussion? Are we overlooking the Oklahoma State duo of Mason Rudolph/J.W. Walsh at QB?

Oklahoma State is not getting the love they deserve in this game considering it is at home, they are a 1-loss team, and it’s a massive rivalry game. Oklahoma State is averaging over 400 passing yards per game in the past 5, with 19 touchdowns to 1 interception.

Last year, this was Rudolph’s breakout performance. He will do enough, in combination with WR James Washington, to keep this game close into the 4th quarter. But, the Sooners, with more balance in the offense, and the stronger defense, will pull away late for the win … with OSU covering.

The Pick: Oklahoma State +7

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