Wow… in our 2+ years of making picks, I’ve never had an 0-for week. That is, until last week. Think about this, it is actually really impressive that I went 0-5. It’s much harder to do than you think. Don’t worry, if it cost you, it cost me too. That being said, when times are tough, you can’t sit on the sidelines. The only way to break out of the slump is to keep the train moving! We are 12-17 this season. Here are our Week 6 picks against the spread.
TCU @ Kansas
It’s the second-straight week that Kansas enters as a 4-touchdown underdog. Last week, I rode the Jayhawks, who were unable to cover that spread against Texas Tech. But, that was on the road, nationally televised, on a Thursday night. Plus, they played better, especially in the first half, than the final score indicated (55-19). This is an 11AM kick off, at home, with a TCU team that has a leaky defense and might sleepwalk through this game after its loss to Oklahoma last week. Last year, TCU barely held on to beat Kansas 23-17. The Jayhawks are coming off of more rest, and QB Ryan Willis was finally named the starter. Willis has been much more accurate and efficient than Montell Cozart in recent weeks.
The line opened up at TCU -29, but has come down, despite 74% of the public money going in on the Horned Frogs. The sharps are on the Jayhawks. I’m joining them.
The Pick: Kansas +28
#20 Oklahoma vs. Texas
This game is huge for both teams and both coaches. No, there aren’t National Title implications on the line, but instead, Charlie Strong’s job might be on the line, and if OU loses this game, Sooners fans will (stupidly) start chirping about Bob Stoops.
Having Charlie Strong take over the defense this week doesn’t drastically change the poor secondary and tackling issues, but for one week, it might bring more focus and intensity to the defense. Also, it’s a rivalry game, Strong might be coaching for his job in this game for a second-straight, and the Sooners have no shortage of defense issues themselves. Plus, OU’s defense couldn’t stop Tyrone Swoopes last year, when it was a better defense than what they have this season. Good luck to the Sooners in slowing down the 18-wheeler package. I believe this spread is an overreaction to all the negative discussion surrounding the Longhorns lately.
The wise guys are on the Sooners, because nearly 60% of the bets are coming in on Texas, while the line keeps growing. But, I’m going against them here.
The Pick: Texas +11.5
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
Does Iowa State feel rejuvenated after its near-win against Baylor at home last week? Or, was that just the one time a season the Cyclones seem to strike fear into a top-ranked opponent in Ames. Something tells me the Cyclones will be spent after last week’s game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are starting to feel good about themselves, led by the running game, which is finally coming around after nearly 2 seasons of hiding. Meantime, Iowa State’s defense is allowing almost 5.5 yards per carry, which ranks 122nd in the country. Last week, Baylor’s Shock Linwood rushed for over 250 yards against Iowa State.
OSU WR James Washington is a game-time decision, but regardless, Oklahoma State should control the clock, they’re home for a second straight week, and want to feel good heading into its bye week. Justice Hill and Rennie Childs run all over the Cyclones tomorrow, with Mason Rudolph hitting on some deep balls. Iowa State can’t keep up. Matt Campbell’s team is improving, but tomorrow will be a slight step back.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -17
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Frankly, with what I’ve seen from Kansas State’s offense, I don’t know how they can be over a touchdown favorite against almost anyone. Yes, Red Raiders star-QB Pat Mahomes is day-to-day with his shoulder injury, but Nic Shimonek proved he is more than capable of handling the job when he threw 4 touchdowns against Kansas last week.
I was impressed with K-State’s defensive line last week against WVU, but that strength should be negated with Kingsbury drawing up quick passes in the flat and on slant routes. K-State running back Charles Jones might have his way on the ground against another poor Tech defense, but will it be enough to cover the big number? I don’t think so.
The Wildcats can certainly win this game by slowing down the pace and having defensive coordinator Tom Hayes throw different looks at Shimonek. But, I have to see the ‘Cats put up big points against a legitimate opponent (not Florida Atlantic or Missouri State) to believe they can cover this one.
The Pick: Texas Tech +8.5
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