Week 14 Big 12 college football picks against the spread for Kansas State/TCU, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State and West Virginia/Baylor
Well, here we are… the final week of the season before bowl season gets underway. Last week was a 2-2 week for our picks, putting us at 12-5 in the past 3 weeks. For the season we are 30-33. For the record, we will do bowl game picks as well! But… here’s to Week 14!
Kansas State @ TCU
Both teams are bowl eligible, so it’s all just about getting some momentum heading into bowl season and the offseason. Both teams are coming off of wins against sub-par competition, K-State against Kansas and TCU against Texas.
The Horned Frogs do a great job getting to the quarterback, leading the Big 12 with 3.64 sacks per game. But, against a K-State team that is not going to drop back 40-50 times per game, that strength should be negated.
Also, TCU has one of the worst turnover margins in the conference, while Kansas State has the best at +11, two ahead of Oklahoma State. The K-State defense will find an opportune time to get a turnover against Kenny Hill, who’s been prone to interceptions all season long.
The public gave way too much credit to TCU two weeks ago, installing them as 6.5-point favorites, and they are doing it again this week.
Oh, and there’s this little nugget: TCU is 0-6 against the spread at home this season.
The Pick: Kansas State +3
#10 Oklahoma State @ #9 Oklahoma
The line opened up at a ridiculous Oklahoma State +14. When it came out, I said on my podcast earlier this week to jump all over the Cowboys. Well, the line has since moved by a field goal. But, is it still too high?
Oklahoma’s rush defense has been much better than its pass defense this season. That actually works in the Cowboys favor because they would much prefer to have Mason Rudolph slinging the ball rather than relying on a running game that is hit or miss (but has improved lately).
But, here’s the thing… as the spread has come down and other elements of this game have changed, I’m totally going against what I said earlier this week… I’m rolling with the Sooners because the weather is expected to be in the high 30’s with rain. That gives a huge advantage to the Sooners thanks the Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine who will wear down the Oklahoma State front 7.
Oklahoma State will need to run the ball effectively to win, and while they’ve gotten better in that department, it’s not the kind of game the Cowboys want to play.
So, in a reversal from earlier this week…
The Pick: Oklahoma -11
Baylor @ #16 West Virginia
The Bears have been an absolute mess the past few weeks. There appears to be little effort and they no longer have quarterback Seth Russell. Meantime, the Mountaineers are home, it’s senior day, and WVU is hoping to finish with a 10-win regular season. There’s a ton of excitement heading into this final home game in Morgantown.
At first glance, the spread still feels too big, but when you look at Baylor, whose lost 5 straight games and the last 4 by an average of over 25 points per game, it makes sense. Not only that, Baylor is throwing freshman QB Zach Smith into the mix for the first road start of his career.
I’m not even sure it’s worth looking at this game from a hard stats standpoint. Does Baylor decide to show up? Or are the players and coaches just so mentally checked out, no one really cares? On talent alone, Baylor should be able to cover this spread with ease. But, there’s much more going on here.
It’s a total gut decision… but I think the Bears can make a late cover on this 3-score spread. Maybe their loss to WVU two years ago to ruin a perfect regular season will finally motivate these guys.
The Pick: Baylor +17