Our picks are brought to you by the folks at MYBOOKIE.AG – check them out for all your gambling and information needs. I use them and they have been a top-notch service to use in my experience so far this season! Enter promo code “Heartland” to receive a 100% sign-up bonus!
OK, so Week 1 did not go as planned with a 1-3 start to the season. That being said, shooter’s shoot, and it’s time to double down with our Big 12 Week 2 gambling picks.
Oklahoma State @ South Alabama
I’m not making a play on the spread here, but rather the over/under. As for the game itself, Mike Gundy has a weird history in Friday night games and South Alabama was down just three points at the half to Ole Miss last week. But then the Rebels offense exploded in the second half. South Alabama gave up 429 yards, 4 touchdowns and an 80% completion percentage to Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson last week. How do you think Mason Rudolph might do?
Meantime, South Alabama’s offense held its own against an SEC defense, racking up 25 first downs and nearly 400 total yards. That should be enough to help lead to an over.
The Pick: OVER 67.5
Iowa State vs. Iowa
This is another game where I don’t love the actual spread and will instead play the over/under. Iowa wants to run the ball, ground and pound, and let its defense help win the game. Last week they kept in check Josh Allen, the Wyoming quarterback who could be a high NFL draft pick. Meantime, Iowa State’s run defense leaves something to be desired. Mix in a rivalry game which will get off to a slow start due to nerves, and it has the recipe for the under.
Other notes: this game has hit the under in 10 of the past 12 match ups. And both teams have hit the under in eight of their past ten games. Roll with.
The Pick: UNDER 48
West Virginia vs. East Carolina
The Mountaineers proved they were a Top 25 team on Sunday night. Even though they fell out of the rankings and have some flaws on defense, this team is legit and is playing its first game in Morgantown angry coming off a tough loss to Virginia Tech.
Meantime, ECU got waxed by 20 points by James Madison last week. They have confusion at quarterback between Thomas Sirk and Gardner Minshew. Last season the Pirates were last in the nation in quarterback sacks and last in turnovers forced. Last week, JMU rushed for over 400 yards against ECU. If Jake Spavital knows whats good for him, he will run the ball much more this week than he did in the loss on Sunday.
WVU rolls.
The Pick: West Virginia -24
Kansas State vs. Charlotte
This is the easiest game on the schedule for the Wildcats. Jesse Ertz lit up Central Arkansas last week and now he plays a bad Charlotte team that helped jump start Lamar Jackson’s Heisman campaign last season. Also, Charlotte loses most of its solid defensive front from last season, which should help kick start K-State’s running game and Alex Barnes who rushed for just 29 yards last week.
Charlotte’s offense is similar to Central Arkansas’ from Week 1, so the defensive game plan doesn’t have to drastically change for the Wildcats. Unfortunately for Charlotte they are one of the worst teams in FBS and Kansas State should roll to a victory, even once the back ups are in in the second half.
The Pick: Kansas State -36
TCU at Arkansas
The spread opened up at TCU +2 and has since flipped to TCU giving points. Kyle Hicks is probable to play for TCU on Saturday against a run defense that allowed an FBS-worst and school-record 39 rushing touchdowns and gave up over 250 rushing yards per game against SEC teams last season. Former Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads is now the defensive coordinator for Arkansas and has switched for a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense to try and help the run defense.
Meantime, Austin Allen is back at quarterback for the Razorbacks, but he has a young group of wide receivers. These wide outs will have to go up against an experienced TCU secondary and will struggle. Both teams will try to exploit the other’s run defense and I believe TCU’s revenge factor will play into this game as well. Hicks, Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua will carry this team to a win on the road, where TCU is 4-2 against the spread in their last six games.
The Pick: TCU -3
Texas vs. San Jose State
This game is going to be focused on the running game. San Jose State is working out its quarterback situation with youth and inexperience early in the season. Meantime, Texas’ Shane Buechele is dealing with a shoulder injury and is a game-time decision. San Jose State’s defensive strength is also its secondary, where the pass defense ranked No. 19 in the nation last season. So look for Texas to try and utilize its running game, which was admittedly subpar last week against Maryland. San Jose State’s offensive strength is its running game, putting up nearly 300 yards last week against Cal Poly. Todd Orlando will do everything to try and fix this defense against what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in FBS. This game will be played at a slightly slower pace because of all these factors, so I’ll roll with the under.
The Pick: UNDER 63
Kansas vs. Central Michigan
OK so, Kansas opens up as a four-point favorite and all the money pours in on the Jayhawks and it keeps growing. Do people realize this isn’t a basketball game? I know Kansas is much improved and I’m pulling for them, but CMU is a solid program with 15 starters back and former Michigan QB Shane Morris under center. CMU didn’t look great against FCS Rhode Island last week, but this is the same group that went to Stillwater and “beat” Oklahoma State last year. Kansas looked good against Southeast Missouri, but I need to see more of it to believe it.
The Pick: Central Michigan +5.5
Oklahoma @ Ohio State
I’m not going to make a play on the spread. I just am admittedly too biased here in wanting OU to win this game for the entire Big 12 conference. But I do have a good feeling on the points. I think both teams are going to score at least 30. We saw Indiana’s attack gash Ohio State in the first half last week and now the Sooners, with an even more explosive offense, come to town. Ohio State lost a lot of its secondary to the NFL, and while there is fresh talent, it’s young. Meantime, the OU defense is without Jordan Parker and is playing a freshman in Kenneth Murray at middle linebacker. J.T. Barrett at home against a defense that has some holes could get ugly for the OU defense. But I think the Sooners offense will keep pace. Tomorrow night’s weather is going to be perfect in Columbus, in the 50’s or 60’s with a light wind. Plus, Oklahoma has hit the over in four of its last five road games.
The Pick: OVER 64.5
Baylor vs. UTSA
Baylor is coming into this game with two freshman at the running back position, which is a huge break for UTSA’s run defense, which is its weakness. The secondary is the strength of the Roadrunners and Anu Solomon will have to do it all on his own to get the win. Meantime, UTSA has a veteran team with 13 starters back from the program’s first-ever bowl appearance last season. Also UTSA is playing in its opener after having its game against Houston cancelled by Hurricane Harvey. UTSA also has veteran experience at the skill positions in wide receivers Josh Stewart and Kerry Thomas Jr. and running back Jalen Rhodes. Plus, UTSA is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
It will be close, but UTSA gets this three-score cover.
The Pick: UTSA +17
