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Last week we went 3-3-3 on the pick, putting us at 10-9-3 on the season. Let’s jump right into Week 4 where we start getting into conference play!
Texas Tech at Houston
Houston is a good team with some top talent on both sides of the ball in former five-star players like Ed Oliver and Kyle Allen. But Allen hasn’t looked like the five-star quarterback from a few years ago, at least not yet. Meantime, Nic Shimonek has replaced Patrick Mahomes’ production as much as anyone could have hoped for in Kliff Kingsbury’s system.
Houston’s strength is on the defensive line led by Oliver, but Shimonek should be able to get rid of the ball quick enough to negate the strong pass rush. But the Cougars haven’t seen an offense like what the Red Raiders bring to town. Kingsbury is fighting for his job this season and knows a 3-0 start in non-conference play would go a long way to securing his position for 2018. Plus, Tech is 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games and 5-2 ATS on the road in their last seven.
The Pick: Texas Tech +7
Kansas vs. West Virginia
Kansas has given up 40+ points to a pair of MAC teams. So what are the Mountaineers going to do as they look for their first real test since Week 1 against Virginia Tech. The spread has bumped to three touchdowns, and while I would lean that way, I don’t feel comfortable about it. The Mountaineers should have a field day against the Kansas defense that has struggled mightily in the secondary and even up front where Dorance Armstrong has yet to record a sack. Meantime, WVU’s secondary hasn’t been great either. They gave up chunks of yards to Delaware State early last week before settling down and made some changes to their depth chart on the back end for this week. KU wants to sling the ball around as much as anyone. These teams are a combined 5-0-1 in the over so far this year, so even with the big number, I’ll ride it.
The Pick: OVER 70.5
Oklahoma State vs. TCU
This will be the best game in college football this weekend. TCU will come in with a chip on its shoulder after losing last year’s game 31-6. Gary Patterson gets the coaching edge (slightly) over Mike Gundy in this game. I love Oklahoma State and I think they will win the Big 12, but they are getting an awful lot of love for a team that hasn’t played the most difficult schedule to date. My thoughts here are that bettors are seeing the Pokes demolish a soft schedule and score on seven-straight drives last week, which drives up the spread. But I can get this TCU running game, with a pass rush that the OK State offensive line has yet to see, the better coach, and a solid secondary getting nearly two touchdowns, I’m going to take it. Also note, TCU is 5-2 ATS on the road in its last seven games and 12-3 ATS as road underdogs in their last 15 games.
The Pick: TCU +13
Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Boy is it tempting to take the home team who is getting nearly 4 touchdowns while bringing back some of their best players from injury such as running back Terence Williams, along with CB Grayland Arnold, safety Taion Sells, LB Jordan Feuerbacher, CB Jordan Tolbert and LB Lenoy Jones. So tempting, but so not smart base on what we’ve seen from Baylor this season. Williams is good, but his offense line has to block for him, which will be a struggle against the Oklahoma front seven. Here’s the smart play: Oklahoma’s offense has been unbelievable, and while Baylor gets a lot back on defense, there is going to be some rust for these players to knock off. OU will score in the 40’s, at least, so I think Baylor can put at least a couple scores on the board at home to hit the over. Also note, the over has hit in 14 of Oklahoma’s last 20 road games, and four of their past five in Waco.
The Pick: OVER 63