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Mountaineers still have path to the Big 12 championship game

NCAA Football: East Carolina at West Virginia

It’s crunch time for the Big 12 conference. As we enter November, especially the next two weeks, the race for the Big 12 championship race will become much clearer.

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The games over the next two weeks that will help define the Big 12 race include:

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Iowa State at West Virginia
TCU vs. Texas
Baylor at Kansas (…kidding!)
TCU at Oklahoma
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State

 
While there are four Big 12 teams at 4-1 in conference play (TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State), it seems like people are forgetting about the West Virginia Mountaineers. Granted, WVU hasn’t played well at certain points this season. Just last week, they were unable to take advantage of two-straight fumbles by Oklahoma State to open the game. The Mountaineers scored zero points on those two turnovers.

But we also have to be honest and realize the Mountaineers do still have a chance of making the Big 12 championship game.

It won’t be easy and I’m not going to BS you and say it’s likely, but WVU fans should have some faith.

The Mountaineers have already suffered losses to TCU and Oklahoma State, so they need some help.

Here’s what WVU has coming up on the schedule:
11/4 vs. Iowa State
11/11 @ Kansas State
11/18 vs. Texas
11/25 @ Oklahoma

IF, and it’s a big IF, the Mountaineers can win out, here’s what would then need to happen.

West Virginia would be sitting at 7-2 in league play, and then…

 

Scenario 1

The TCU Horned Frogs would need to lose these next two games against Texas and Oklahoma, giving them three conference losses. WVU would then have a win over Iowa State this weekend, so even if Iowa State wins out after this week, WVU holds the tie breaker. Oklahoma State would have to then lose to Oklahoma this weekend and Iowa State next weekend. That would set up a Big 12 championship game of Oklahoma vs. West Virginia.

Scenario 2

TCU loses to Texas this weekend. Oklahoma loses its next two games against Oklahoma State and TCU. Iowa State beats Oklahoma State in two weeks. That would leave four Big 12 teams with two losses in two weeks (TCU, WVU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State). From there, the Mountaineers need serious help, since Oklahoma State and TCU hold head-to-head tiebreakers over WVU. So, TCU has to lose to one of these two teams: Texas Tech or Baylor. This would create a Big 12 championship game of Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia. 

 

Scenario 3

The third option is very similar to the second, but flip flops Oklahoma State and TCU. TCU loses to Texas this weekend. Oklahoma loses its next two games against Oklahoma State and TCU. Iowa State beats Oklahoma State in two weeks. That would leave four Big 12 teams with two losses in two weeks (TCU, WVU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State). From there, the Mountaineers need serious help, since Oklahoma State and TCU hold head-to-head tiebreakers over WVU. So, Oklahoma State has to lose to one of these two teams: Kansas State or Kansas. This would create a Big 12 championship game of TCU vs. West Virginia. 

Final thoughts

The most likely scenario here is obviously #1. And it’s nearly impossible for the Mountaineers if they don’t win the rest of their games this season, which is not going to be easy. But as the Mountaineers get ready for Iowa State this weekend, they should still view themselves as Big 12 contenders, because mathematically, they are. But it all starts by beating the Cyclones at home on Saturday.

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