1-4 week. Awful. But it’s a slump-busting kind of week, I feel it. 24-25-3 on the season. Time to get back above .500 and stop losing money.
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
Pokes will be slow out of the gates after an emotional game in Bedlam last week. Throw in 40 degree temperatures and a 60% chance of rain? Also, Iowa State’s defense has been fantastic at home, while their offense has been very suspect in recent weeks, despite the success. The Cylcones held Will Grier in check on the road, why not Mason Rudolph at home in poor weather conditions?
The Pick: UNDER 61
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
A couple simple notes went into selecting this game. As the season hits the home stretch, motivation becomes a factor. Baylor is a young group of guys coming off their first win of the season, are improving each week, getting more confident and feel good about the direction of the program. Tech has lost four straight, Kingsbury’s seat is warming back up, and they’re coming off an awful loss to Kansas State. Also, while 75% of bets are coming in on Texas Tech, the line has not budged. Wise guys are on the Bears, so am I.
The Pick: Baylor +7.5
Kansas State vs. West Virginia
These teams have played one-point games the past two seasons. I expect another close game this weekend, but I’m getting the better team as an underdog? Sign me up. Kansas State’s secondary has been very underwhelming this season, allowing the most passing yards in the conference. It’s not a typical Bill Snyder team and they’re likely going with a back up quarterback.
The Pick: West Virginia +2.5
Texas vs. Kansas
Texas has an outstanding defense, while KU’s offense is a disaster. The Longhorns will look to run, run and run some more, work the clock and just go home with a big win. The under has hit in seven of nine Texas games this year and has hit in seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams. KU has scored 0, 0, 20 and 9 points its last four games. Meantime, the Texas offense is good, but it’s far from anything special, even going up against a mediocre Kansas defense. Roll with the under
The Pick: UNDER 55
Oklahoma vs. TCU
I talked to four people I trust on the gambling side of things, and all FOUR were avoiding this game. I wish I could as well, but that’s not what I was put on this earth to do. I’m here to give you Big 12 picks, dammit. So with that being said, OU is coming off an emotional Bedlam road win, while TCU took care of business against Texas last week. All the betting trends seem to favor TCU: 4-2 ATS last six games, 5-1 ATS last six road games, 6-3 ATS last nine games against Oklahoma. Would it shock you if TCU won this game? It wouldn’t to me. So for that reason alone, I’ll roll with the Frogs. Plus, the TCU defense and running game will try to slow things down a bit and potentially keep this one closer. Also recommended: buy the half a point to get it to an even touchdown. I did it and my odds moved from -110 to -125. Well worth it, IMO.
The Pick: TCU +7