Big 12 2018 NCAA Tournament First-Round Preview — South Region
(8) Creighton (21-11) vs. (9) Kansas State (22-11), 5:50 p.m., Friday, Charlotte, N. C., TNT
How they got here: The season results are strikingly similar. Both teams were on the bubble and earned at-large bids. Their conference records were identical at 10-8. Creighton finished ahead of Kansas State in the RPI rankings at No.44, while the Wildcats No.53 ranking was one of the lowest to secure an at-large bid. Both teams are traveling to a different time zone, which favors Kansas State. The Wildcats boast an 8-7 record away from home, including a 2-2 record at neutral sites. Creighton is 5-9 away from home. The Blue Jays finished 1-2 at a neutral site.
Expected starters and head coach
Creighton — G Marcus Foster (20.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg), G Davion Mintz (6.0 ppg, 3.1 apg), G Khyri Thomas (15.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg), G Mitch Ballock (7.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg), F Toby Hegner (8.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg). Head coach — Greg McDermott (187-92 at Creighton, 454-284 overall).
Kansas State — G Cartier Diarra (7.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg 2.1 apg), G Barry Brown Jr. (16.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg., 3.4 apg.), G Xavier Sneed (10.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg), F Dean Wade (16.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.8 apg), F Makol Mawien (7.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 0.3 apg). Head coach — Bruce Weber (122-79 at Kansas State, 435-234 overall).
About Creighton: The Bluejays can put up points. Ranked tenth nationally in points per game, this team is lead by First-team All-Big East selection Marcus Foster. He has 2,162 career points and is one of four seniors on this young squad. Perhaps, the player with the most potential is Khyri Thomas. Being a junior, Thomas has an impressive balance of offense and defense. He earned Big East Defensive Player of the Year, and has scored in double-figures in 13 of the last 14 games. The main weakness Creighton seems to have is playing on the road. The only team with a winning record the Bluejays took down away from the friendly confines was UCLA at a neutral site Nov. 20. Creighton is also 4-6 since the start of February and one of those wins came against non-Division 1 school Bemidji State. They enter the NCAA Tournament on a two-game losing streak.
About Kansas State: If the Wildcats are to win this game, it will be on their defense. The Wildcats have held all but four opponents under their points per game average. Kansas State also likes to force turnovers, ranking 22nd nationally in the steals department. Dean Wade will be a major factor underneath the basket. By far, he is the leader in rebounds between the two teams, averaging over six per game.
Prediction: History is certainly not on Kansas State’s side. The Wildcats have failed to advance past the Round of 64 since 2012. Meanwhile, Creighton has been known to win some NCAA Round of 64 thrillers. Although, Rhode Island was able to eliminate Creighton in the first round last season. Unlike Kansas State, Creighton struggles to win away from home. The Wildcats do own a 6-5 true road record with one of those victories coming against fellow NCAA Tournament team, Texas. The statistics tell me I’m insane, but give me the Wildcats in Charlotte.
Next up: The winner faces either No.1 Virginia or No.16 UMBC in the second round.
(7) Nevada (27-7) vs. (10) Texas (19-14), 3:30 p.m., Friday, Nashville, Tenn. TBS
How they got here: Nevada earned an at-large bid with a No.17 RPI ranking, a Mountain West Conference Regular Season Championship, and a strong non-conference schedule. They defeated Rhode Island and Davidson, while losing road contests to TCU and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, Texas was one of the lucky bubble teams who earned the committee’s selection. Texas had a losing road record, fewer than 20 victories, and one of the lowest RPIs in the tournament at 51. However, their schedule was one of the strongest featuring neutral site games against Butler, Duke and Gonzaga early on. Additionally, they scored a road victory against Alabama. Despite losing, they also hosted Big Ten Tournament Champion Michigan. Victories against Texas Tech, TCU and a sweep of Oklahoma also helped.
Expected starters and head coach
Nevada — F Caleb Martin (19.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.6 apg), F Cody Martin (13.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.6 apg), G Hallice Cooke (4.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.6 apg), G Kendall Stephens (13.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.6 apg), G/F Jordan Caroline (17.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.1 apg). Head coach — Eric Musselman (79-28 overall).
Texas — G Matt Coleman (9.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg), G Kerwin Roach II (11.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg), G Jase Febres (3.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg), F Mohamed Bamba (12.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg), F Dylan Osetkowski (13.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg). Head coach — Shaka Smart (50-49 at Texas, 213-105 overall).
About Nevada: This team cleaned up the Mountain West Conference awards. Caleb Martin wasn’t just Newcomer of the Year, but Player of the Year. His twin brother, Cody, nabbed Defensive Player of the Year after a season which he garnered 55 steals and 48 blocks. Eric Musselman won Coach of the Year, and is a former NBA head coach. As if that wasn’t scary enough, Jordan Caroline may be one of the hottest players in the nation right now. We’ll see if the week off cooled him down, but he has scored at least 20 points in each of the last five games. To add on, he has notched a double-double in three of the last five games, and five of the last nine. To quote Dan Patrick, Caroline is “en fuego”.
About Texas: This is not a deep Texas team. They lost Andrew Jones for the year after being diagnosed with leukemia in January. This diagnosis certainly provided plenty of motivation for the team, and could have helped a youthful program grow up a bit. Texas relies on its post play with superstar Mo Bamba, who is averaging a double-double, and Dylan Osetkowski. If the Longhorns are to get past the first round, they’ll need some help from Kerwin Roach
Prediction: Texas is too much of a roller coaster to be a reliable pick. Nevada is no stranger to first round victories. This program won the only meeting between the two teams when the Wolfpack scored a 61-57 victory before losing to a No.1 Illinois team in round two. They also advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2004. While that was over a decade ago, I feel this team may be the best Nevada team in program history. Give me Nevada in a close, entertaining game.
