Big 12 Football Week Three Picks Against the Spread
My Week One picks got off to a respectable 5-5 start, but last week was a horrible 1-7, my worst week ever since starting this three years ago. Brutal. So maybe fade all my picks this week?! Your call!
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Kansas at Boston College
The Jayhawks go on the road to take on an underrated BC program that’s led by All-ACC running back A.J. Dillon. Kansas is giving up over 150 rushing yards per game so far this season against Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. QB Carter Stanley was back to running for his life and struggling in a big way. I don’t see how the offense gets going against BC and Anthony Brown, is a talented multi-year starter who has six total touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. BC rolls at home.
The Pick: Boston College -21
Kansas State at Mississippi State
Kansas State looks like a different program under Chris Klieman. Granted it’s been away weak competition, but this team has still outscored opponents 101-14. Kansas State has the better QB since Nick Fitzgerald is gone for Mississippi State and a running game with two 300-yard games in the first two weeks. Kansas State can cover this spread, just like they have dating back to last season, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
The Pick: Kansas State +8
West Virginia vs. NC State
The Mountaineers are a mess. The offensive line cannot block anybody, therefore the running game is averaging barely 1.0 yards per carry. Austin Kendall is running all over the place. The defense has been able to get to the QB and get behind the line of scrimmage, but if the offense keeps going with short drives, the defense will eventually get worn down. Neal Brown has a serious rebuild on his hands and its going to take some time. Also, it’s proven time and time again that betting home underdogs is not a winning bet like it is in the NFL. I can’t put money on the WVU team I saw last week vs. Mizzou. Oh, and WVU is 0-4-1 in its last five games against the spread.
The Pick: NC State -6.5
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
The Pokes are on a roll and Spencer Sanders appears to have an incredibly high ceiling through two games as a redshirt freshman. However, Mike Gundy says he was disappointed in how his offense played to start the game against McNeese last week so expect the Cowboys to come out firing early on Saturday, even against a Tulsa team that is typically full of local guys who relish playing one of the “big dogs” in the state. But Oklahoma State has been a good bet lately and against Tulsa, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 4-2 ATS in their last six against Tulsa.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -14
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Cy-Hawk. College GameDay. It’s a dream come true for Cyclone Nation. But Iowa State is going to have a tough time on Saturday. It’s offensive line looked really disappointing against Northern Iowa and now it faces a very good Iowa defensive line, led by defensive end A.J. Epenesa who is a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Iowa also brings the more veteran QB into this game with Nate Stanley. As good as Brock Purdy has been, it’s his first edition of Cy-Hawk. Iowa also has had ISU’s number lately, going 4-1-1 in their last six games against the spread.
The Pick: Iowa State -2.5
TCU at Purdue
This one is tricky. I want to pick TCU, but to have the quarterback situation they do in a road match up against a Big Ten program is not a bet I’m willing to make. However, I do like a different play for the under. TCU has an absolutely stout defense, unlike anything Jeff Brohm’s high-flying offense has seen in some time, but especially this season. Gary Patterson also had two weeks to prepare for this game, which is always an advantage. Other numbers: The under has hit in four of TCU’s last six games and in seven of their last nine road games. Between the TCU defense and its offense, I like the under.
The Pick: Under 51.5
Texas vs. Rice
Here’s another tricky one. Rice may be without its starting quarterback, so it’s tough for me to know what to do with a spread that is pushing five scores. But since Rice may be without it’s starting QB and a Texas defense licking its chops to get back on the field and prove itself after giving up 45 points to LSU last week, I see a strong defensive performance. Offensively, Texas will do what it has to do to leave Houston with a win and try and stay healthy and rested for Oklahoma State next week. The under has also hit in four of Texas’ last six games.
The Pick: Under 57.5
Texas Tech at Arizona
Sure, it’s always dicey to bet a road team in Pac-12 After Dark action, but I’m going to do it because I trust what Matt Wells has going on in Lubbock. Arizona’s defense is a mess, allowing over 40 points to Hawaii and Northern Arizona. What could Alan Bowman do?! Plus, the Texas Tech defense has been wildly underrated so far, yes against mediocre competition, but still holding opponents to 3 of 31 on third downs. Texas Tech will get one more stop than Arizona.
The Pick: Texas Tech -2.5
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