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Big 12 Football Week Four Picks Against the Spread

NCAA Football: Las Vegas Bowl-Houston vs San Diego State

My picks went 4-5 last week, which gives me a 10-17 mark on the season. Week 2 will be the death of me. So maybe fade all my picks this week?! Your call!

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Iowa State vs. Louisiana-Monroe

I see an Iowa State team that is going to be hungry and angry after how last week’s game went against Iowa. On top of that, Iowa State gets conference play started next week against Baylor, so the Cyclones are just going to try and get out of this one with a win. The spread does not entice me, but the “under” does. The under has hit in 12 of Iowa State’s last 18 games, plus four of the past five games for ULM. Throw those stats on top of how I think this game will play out and what ISU’s goals will be, and I like the play.

The Pick: Under 55.5

TCU vs. SMU

SMU has former Texas QB Shane Buechele, but he will be quickly reminded why he left the Big 12 Conference. TCU held a really good Purdue offense to 200 total yards last week and is back home ready to wrap up non-conference play with a victory. The quarterbacks of Alex Delton and Max Duggan were much more comfortable against Purdue than in the opener. TCU has owned this rivalry as of late, going 4-2 against the spread in their last six meetings, and TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while SMU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.

The Pick: TCU -9.5

 

West Virginia vs. Kansas

Two teams who are coming off big wins try to keep the momentum going. Before games I try to guess the spread and I would’ve guessed WVU would be a 7-10 point favorite. WVU QB Austin Kendall is getting more comfortable and that showed last week against NC State. His ceiling is much higher than Carter Stanley and he has a lot of weapons at the skill positions, along with an offensive line that finally got going. I also think KU’s offensive line will struggle with the Stills brothers on the WVU defensive line.

The Pick: WVU -4.5

Baylor vs. Rice

Baylor had last week off after two easy games to open up the season. Meantime Rice has played three-straight Power 5 opponents in Army, Wake Forest and Texas. That puts the owls in a very difficult spot with a fourth-straight match up against a quality and rested Power 5 opponent. Baylor is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games. As for Rice, they’re 0-6 ATS in their last six Week 4 games. This matters because Rice plays up in non-conference play, meaning they’re spent by the time they get to late September.

The Pick: Baylor -26

Texas vs. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State has won five in a row in Austin and is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games. I worry about redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders in his first Big 12 road game, but he has the poise to handle it based on what I’ve seen thus far. Also note, 73% of the money is on Texas and the line has not moved much, meaning the big money is on the Cowboys, which is where I’m going with this as well.

The Pick: Oklahoma State +6

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