Big 12 Football Week Five Picks Against the Spread
There are just times when the breaks aren’t going your way, and that’s the rut I find myself in right now. If you have been fading my picks in recent weeks, you’ve made some nice money. I went 1-3-1 last week, putting my picks at 11-20-1 on the season. The worst streak since I started this column a couple years ago. But, only losers quit. I just keep ’em churning. So let’s get to the picks!
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TCU vs. Kansas
This Kansas team is a .5-point away from being 3-1 against the spread this season. It’s a different Jayhawks team and it’s playing with some confidence under new head coach Les Miles. Now, they hit the road to take on a TCU team that looked very, very mediocre against SMU. Sure, that could result in the Horned Frogs coming out mad and punching the Jayhawks in the mouth, but I think KU can hang around. Plus, for whatever reason, Gary Patterson has had his issues against the Jayhawks in recent seasons. TCU is 2-8 against the spread vs. Kansas in their last 10 games. Based on TCU’s offense which is still figuring things out, I believe the Jayhawks can cover this spread.
The pick: Kansas +16
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech is in for an interesting stretch without QB Alan Bowman, who is out for several weeks with a shoulder injury. But the TTU defense is vastly improved from what we typically expect in Lubbock. The spread has moved in OU’s favor by at least three points and 75% of the bets are being placed on the Sooners. I believe that’s casual college football fans knowing OU is a playoff contender and seeing the big injury for Tech. I think that’s a mistake. Tech’s defense is good, OU’s schedule has been even weaker than expected thus far (no fault of their own), and while he’s not a long-term solution, if Jett Duffey gets the start at QB, he’s the kind of player who can give a defense fits for a game thanks to his legs.
The Pick: Texas Tech +27.5
Baylor vs. Iowa State
This was the toughest game of the week to pick because I’m still not sure what exactly Baylor is through three games of a cupcake non-conference schedule. But the Bears are home and Iowa State has had a few more kinks to work out than I expected in the early part of the season. ISU has also become a betting favorite dating back to last season when Matt Campbell became the toast of college football. As a result, Iowa State is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games. Give me Matt Rhule and the Bears to cover this number.
The Pick: Baylor +3
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Kansas State’s season has gotten off to an incredible start at 3-0 with dominant wins and now a Top 25 ranking to go along with it. K-State’s running game has led the way (280 ypg), which is not good for an OSU defense giving up 162 rushing yards per game thus far. The Pokes are back home after a tough road loss at Texas, while K-State is well rested coming off its bye week with an enormous amount of confidence. The Wildcats have also historically given Mike Gundy issues, as he’s 2-8 against the spread against K-State in his last 10. Meantime, the Wildcats are rolling at 3-0 ATS this season. This will be a heckuva game and I’ll roll with K-State to at least cover.
The Pick: Kansas State +5
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