There are just times when the breaks aren’t going your way, and that’s the rut I find myself in right now. If you have been fading my picks in recent weeks, you’ve made some nice money. I went 1-3 last week, putting my picks at a pathetic 11-23-1 on the season. The worst streak since I started this column a couple years ago. But, only losers quit. I just keep ’em churning. So let’s get to the picks!
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The Pokes are 5-0 against the spread this year and they’re 4-1 against the spread in their past five road games. Mike Gundy has this team where he wants it: Being overlooked. Meantime, Texas Tech is 1-5-1 against the spread in its last seven games. In this game, it’s Oklahoma State’s 9th-ranked rushing offense in America against Tech’s 86th-ranked rushing defense. The Red Raiders’ strength is their 12th-ranked passing game, but that’s clearly overstated due to the loss of Alan Bowman. His leadership and swagger was clearly missing last week in Norman and that continues this week.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -10
There is a 70% chance of rain in Ames on Saturday with 15-20 mph winds. That means whoever is going to win will have to run the ball effectively. TCU has the 14th-ranked rushing offense going up against the 47th-ranked rushing defense. For Iowa State, the numbers are nearly identically reversed, the 54th-ranked rushing offense vs. the 13th-ranked rushing defense. Iowa State also seems to be the team that’s become too trendy to bet for its own good as the Cyclones are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games. The offensive line woes really concern me in this game, especially against a strong TCU defensive line.
The Pick: TCU +3.5
I’m done losing money on the Sooners and the Jayhawks. I’ve been on the wrong side of both of these teams throughout the early season. Kansas has lost Khalil Herbert at running back after he’s decided to sit out the season, use his redshirt and transfer, and linebacker Dru Prox is questionable and has been one of their best defenders this season. KU is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. The Sooners roll to victory as a tune up for the Red River Rivalry.
The Pick: Oklahoma -33
Some of the shine of Kansas State’s win over Mississippi State has worn off and the loss in Stillwater last week showed some of the deficiencies of this team. Kansas State is not a team built to play from behind. As for the Bears, Matt Rhule has his team much better on both lines. They’ve been able to run the ball effectively this season, which they’ll need in some potentially dicey weather this weekend in Manhattan, and the Bears lead the Big 12 in sacks and had three last week against Iowa State. Baylor is being undervalued here.
The Pick: Baylor +1
Both teams are coming off a bye week, and while Texas is banged up, the rebuilding Mountaineers are going to have their hands full trying to pull off an upset. Sam Ehlinger is by far the best quarterback WVU will have seen this season and their scoring defense is already ranked a paltry 78th in the country. Also, Tom Herman’s teams at Texas have started hitting their strides in October, as the Longhorns are 6-2 against the spread the last two seasons in this month.
The Pick: Texas -10.5
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