There are just times when the breaks aren’t going your way, and that’s the rut I find myself in right now. If you have been fading my picks in recent weeks, you’ve made some nice money. I went 2-3 last week, putting my picks at a pathetic 13-26-1 on the season. The worst streak since I started this column a couple years ago. But, only losers quit. I just keep ’em churning. So let’s get to the picks!
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It’s an all-time great rivalry and should be another good game on Saturday. Texas has the best player in this game in Sam Ehlinger and it’s the more battle-tested team so far this season. I’m more impressed with Texas so far this season on both lines, based on who their competition has been. They’ve had the same five starters on the offensive line this season and while the defensive backs have been banged up, it’s still arguably the best defense in the Big 12. OU has a tough time getting to the QB this season against mediocre competition with just 13 sacks in five games. Also, Texas is 6-1 against the spread against OU in their last seven meetings.
The Pick: Texas +11
Both these teams come into the game with very solid defenses. Iowa State’s is starting to shape up to be one of the best in the Big 12 and WVU’s is underrated, especially with how strong it is on the defensive line. There is also a 50% chance for rain on Saturday in Morgantown and both teams are coming off emotional games last week. Iowa State had a delay and then a bounce-back big win over TCU, while WVU hung with Texas for three quarters before losing. The under has hit in four of five meetings between these two teams an for Iowa State the under has hit in 10 of their last 11 road games.
The Pick: Under 53.5
Typically, this might be a game that hit 100 points, but not this season. Baylor has held its two Big 12 opponents to a combined 33 points (ISU and KSU). Meantime, Texas Tech’s defense helped the team get out to a 20-0 lead over Oklahoma State last week, while piling up seven sacks and 14 tackles for loss. The under has hit in five of Texas Tech’s last seven games and seven of Baylor’s last 10 games. Here’s another tidbit, both teams are in the top half of red zone defense in the Big 12 this season, while they are both ranked at the bottom of the Big 12 in red zone offense. Sign me up for the under.
The Pick: Under 58
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