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Oklahoma State vs. Baylor: Preview and Prediction

NCAA Football: Baylor at Oklahoma State

Here is everything you need to know about the upcoming Big 12 match up in our Oklahoma State vs. Baylor preview and prediction.

Game Info

3 pm CT  | Saturday, October 19, 2019  | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma 

TV: FOX (Tim Brando, Spencer Tillman, and Coley Harvey)

Local Radio Baylor: Baylor Sports Network/ESPN Central Texas (John Morris, JJ Joe, and Ricky Thompson)

Local Radio Oklahoma State: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker, Dave Holcomb, and Robert Allen)

Opening Line: Oklahoma State -4

 

Key Players

Baylor

DT James Lynch

The junior defensive end has 5.5 sacks and 7.0 tackles for loss.  Not bad stats for half a season, really. Oh wait, that’s just over THE LAST TWO GAMES. Baylor’s defensive line has played as well as anyone’s the last two contests but Lynch personally has been a star. Oklahoma State’s offensive line has been up and down and plagued with injury so the 6 foot 4 inch, 300 pound Bears tackle must be licking his chops. The Cowboy’s quarterback committed five turnovers in his last game against Texas Tech.  Baylor has the horses up front to pressure the freshmen QB on almost every drop back which could lead to the same kind of fortunate mistakes for them.

QB Charlie Brewer

If not for a couple of guys names Hurts and Ehlinger Brewer would probably be considered the best quarterback in the conference. Strong armed, athletic, and smart Brewer is a gamer to his core. He had a rough game last week against the Red Raiders, throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns, but that’s an abnormal occurrence for a quarterback that is famously safe with the ball. In fact the first interception he threw last week was the first one he had thrown so far this season. With the Cowboys lack of ability to pressure with just the defensive line Brewer could have a career day beating the blitz with his legs when OSU sends extra rushers, or picking apart coverage from a safe pocket when they don’t.

Oklahoma State

RB Chuba Hubbard

Like I said before, expect Hubbard to be mentioned here every week.  Hubbard has proven himself to be the premier running back in the Big 12, a conference that has quite a few good rushers, and one of the best in the entire country as well.  He runs with power but can also make people miss or take it the distance with his world class speed. His numbers are gaudy: through six games he’s scored 13 tds and stacked up 1094 yards on 162 carries. That’s 6.8 yards an attempt!  Averaging 27 carries a game isn’t ideal as the second half of the season wears on but coming off a bye week he should be rested and ready to carry to load against a good Bears defense that’s missing maybe its best player, senior linebacker Clay Johnston.

QB Spencer Sanders

Spencer Sanders has all the talent in the world and I’m sure he scares the pants off every defensive coordinator while they game plan for him. Cannon arm, sprinters speed, plays hard. When he’s on, oh man, he’s good! But when he’s off… it’s obvious he’s only a freshmen. His last game against the Red Raiders he imploded, throwing three picks and losing two fumbles. He’s had a few good games this season, the owner against Oregon State and versus Texas in Austin, but the other four games he’s been average or worse, and stud running back Chuba Hubbard has had to be the entire offense.  The bye week was perfect timing for the Cowboy staff to try to get in his head and tinker a bit because they really need Good Sanders to show up against a Baylor team that plays solid defense.

 

Key Storylines

Baylor

Can the Bears keep winning?  Going undefeated in the Big 12 is hard because you never know when a team will click on offense and score 60 points on you. For Baylor its been a “so far so good” season but there have been a couple of scares. Iowa State made a fierce 4th quarter comeback and almost stole a game that looked like it was in the bag, and then last week the refs helped Baylor out by blowing an illegal snap call that would’ve given the Red Raiders the win. Oklahoma State has its issues and looked terrible against in their last game Texas Tech (who took Baylor to 2 OTs) but still only lost by 10 after committing five turnovers. The Cowboys are dangerous and the Bears are in a rough spot being caught playing between a tough, to the wire  game and a needed bye week.

Oklahoma State

Can the offense find some legs that don’t belong to Chuba Hubbard? The Cowboy’s can’t continue to run Hubbard into the ground. And the Bears have the defensive line to make it hard for him to win the game solo anyway. No, OSU is going to have to throw some to win this game.  Can Sanders do it? He’ll have to learn to trust a receiver not named Wallace or Stoner, and make smart decisions about when to tuck the ball (hopefully safely after the fumbling debacle last game) and run. The game against Texas Tech doesn’t look as bad is it did after watching the Red Raiders play Baylor, apparently the boys from Lubbock aren’t dead in the water, but the Cowboys can’t play that way again if they hope to turn the season around.

Prediction

Oklahoma State 38 Baylor 35

After the surprise loss to Texas tech OSU QB Spencer Sanders went full Tim Tebow.  “I’m not losing again,” he said, “We’re going to come back better.” While I don’t buy him backing it up for the rest of the season like Tebow famously did I do buy it for this week.

I went back and forth on this one but finally decided it just seems like a bad spot for Baylor. Oklahoma State is coming off a bye week following an embarrassing loss. If you follow trends Mike Gundy’s teams are pretty good following loss, and following bye weeks. Add in that Baylor is 1-12 its last 13 trips to Stillwater and that the Cowboys seem to play like world beaters against ranked opponents and just too much adds up to a Bears loss for me to pick it the other way. I do think this will be a hell of a game though! A few bounces one way or the other and I feel like either team could run away with it. I expect both teams to play well though/ Baylor is tough and well coached, and Oklahoma State is explosive. Look for this to be a nail biter with OSU winning by a field goal late in the game.

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