There are just times when the breaks aren’t going your way, and that’s the rut I find myself in right now. If you have been fading my picks in recent weeks, you’ve made some nice money. I went 2-3 last week (a couple plays from 4-1, but who is counting), putting my picks at a still pathetic 17-30-1 on the season. The worst streak since I started this column a couple years ago. But, only losers quit. I just keep ’em churning. So let’s get to the picks!
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The Sooners are going to win this game. There’s no doubt about it. However, the spread is enormous. OU is coming off a tough rivalry game and is looking to get this game wrapped up quickly and put some back ups in to run out the clock. That’s how I see this game playing out. Meantime, WVU has an underrated defense, and while I don’t think they can stop Jalen Hurts and the Sooners, they can do enough to cover a five-touchdown spread. The Mountaineers get the cover.
The Pick: West Virginia +34
Both these teams have reasons to be sluggish. Iowa State is going from a road trip in Morgantown to a road trip in Lubbock in back-to-back weeks, literally as far apart as two-straight road trips can be. That could lead to a slow start for both offenses. Also, the Iowa State red zone defense ranks second in the Big 12, while TTU has the eight-ranked red zone offense. Plus, Iowa State has hit the under in 11 of their last 12 road games. I don’t want to touch the number because I could see some weird stuff happening in this game, but give me the under.
The Pick: Under 55.5
Both these offenses aren’t very good, but the defenses may be overrated. TCU gave up 190 rushing yards to Iowa State and K-State’s rushing defense ranks 9th in the Big 12. Both these teams want to run the ball anyway and the weather should be very good on Saturday in Manhattan. The over has hit in four of TCU’s last five Big 12 games and this number is more of an AFC North match up than it is a Big 12 game.
The Pick: Over 44.5
Everyone thinks Oklahoma State, Homecoming, undefeated team … and we think back to last year’s upset of Texas. OK, but let’s pump the breaks for a second. Baylor has arguably the best group of wide receivers in the Big 12 and is going up against the 9th-ranked passing defense in the Big 12. Also, Baylor is first in the Big 12 with 23 sacks in six games and Oklahoma State has allowed 13 sacks in six games, which is the second-most in the conference. I think Oklahoma State squeaks one out, but I am taking Baylor to cover.
The Pick: Baylor +4
The Longhorns are coming off a tough rivalry loss and they’re even more banged up than they were going into last week’s game against OU. Texas just wants to survive this one and try to get guys healthy. Meantime, Kansas had a week off and has a new offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon, who could throw some wrinkles in there that Texas has no idea is coming. Also note, 62% of the money is on Texas, but the line is moving in Kansas’ favor. That means the smart money is on Kansas, and I’m joining them.
The Pick: Kansas +21.5
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