There are just times when the breaks aren’t going your way, and that’s the rut I find myself in right now. If you have been fading my picks in recent weeks, you’ve made some nice money. Last week was a 1-3 week. The worst streak since I started this column a couple years ago. But, only losers quit. I just keep ’em churning. So let’s get to the picks!
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Baylor vs. West Virginia
Well, in this game, the Bears are home and lead the Big 12 in turnover margin at +6, while WVU is struggling at -4. BU is 3-1 ATS in the last month, while WVU is 2-6 ATS this season. The Mountaineers cant run the ball and frankly, can’t pass it either, and now they have to go up against the third-ranked pass defense (based on efficiency) in the Big 12. It’s a weeknight game, McLane should be rocking and the Bears won’t be caught looking ahead.
The Pick: Baylor -17
OK, so both teams are coming off huge wins, negating the hangover effect for both teams. But in some key statistical categories, I believe K-State has the edge. The WIldcats rank third in third-down defense, while KU is 10th, plus Kansas State has dominated time of possession, ranking second in the Big 12, while KU is 10th. I could see K-State using a similar formula to the OU game, which is putting together sustained drives to grind down the OU defense and keep the offense off the field. Plus, I just can’t totally buy KU keeping themselves in (or winning) two-straight Big 12 games. I need to see it to believe it.
The Pick: K-State: -6
The Pokes are home after a big win over Iowa State, while TCU comes in off a victory vs. Texas. Earlier in the week I picked the Pokes on my podcast, and while Tylan Wallace is reportedly out for the season, I don’t want to be a wimp and back out on my initial pick. Oklahoma State has cleaned up the turnovers, at least they did last week vs. ISU, and Spencer Sanders is back at home. Plus, TCU has struggled going 4-11 ATS against Big 12 teams in their last 15 games. OSU just needs to keep Sanders comfortable. When he completes at least 60% of his passes, the Pokes are 4-0. That continues this weekend.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5
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