There are just times when the breaks aren’t going your way, and that’s the rut I find myself in right now. If you have been fading my picks in recent weeks, you’ve made some nice money. Last week was a 3-1-1 week, giving me a mark of 9-2-1 the past 3 weeks! So let’s get to the picks for this week!
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Iowa State has actually been a better team against the spread on the road this season than at home (2-1 vs. 3-3). Also, Kansas, who on the road for this game, has been better against the road on the road (2-2) compared to at home (2-3). I don’t want to call it a trap game for Iowa State, but considering they’re coming off a highly-emotional win over Texas and then have K-State on deck next week, it does set up like one. Iowa State may also pull the plug on some key players in the second half to rest up for next week. Meanwhile, Kansas has played two stinkers in a row and and the spread seems to reflect that. This number is too big for me.
The Pick: Kansas +24.5
Yes, Spencer Sander is out with a hand injury, but also, West Virginia has one of the most underappreciated defenses in the conference this season. They get to the QB ranking second in sacks this season and held Baylor to 17 points and Kansas State to just 20 last week. Meantime, Oklahoma State’s defense has been on a nice run with 10 takeaways the past three games and holding teams to under 25 points per game the last four games. Plus, it’s Morgantown in late November.
The Pick: Under 59.5
The Bears may be down, but they should bounce right back, knowing they’re still more likely than not to end up in the Big 12 Championship Game in a re-match against Oklahoma. The Bears have the top scoring defense and pass efficiency defense in the conference and Texas must throw the ball to win as the running game has been too inconsistent to rely on. Collin Johnson was out last week for UT and remains questionable for this game. Also note, no one on this Baylor team has beaten Texas. This is their year.
The Pick: Baylor -5.5
The Wildcats have had a couple of disappointing losses in a row, but are poised for a bounce back against a Texas Tech defense ranked ninth in the Big 12 in rushing and 10th in passing. Also, Tech stud LB Jordyn Brooks is uncertain for this game after leaving last week against TCU with an injury. Tech’s D has lived off turnovers, which Kansas State hasn’t committed a ton of this season. This may be a sucker bet for K-State given that the line has flipped, but I think Chris Klieman will have his team refocused this week for a solid road win.
The Pick: Kansas State +2.5
This feels like an overcompensation line since the Horned Frogs are 1-5 against the spread in their past six games. I’ve bet against them a lot lately thinking the spreads were giving Gary Patterson’s team too much credit for what is a mediocre team this year. But Max Duggan does continue to get better and show progress and the defense ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing and pass defense efficiency. Since TCU’s blowout loss to Iowa State, all their games have been decided by 10 points or less, with four of five decided by a touchdown or less. TCU can cover this number against an Oklahoma team that is really good, but isn’t what the team was in 2017 or 2018.
The Pick: TCU +18
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