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Big 12 Football Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

NCAA Football: Las Vegas Bowl-Houston vs San Diego State

There are just times when the breaks aren’t going your way, and that’s the rut I find myself in right now. If you have been fading my picks in recent weeks, you’ve made some nice money. Last week was a 5-0 week, giving me a mark of 14-2-1 the past four weeks! So let’s get to the picks for this week!

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Texas vs. Texas Tech

This is it for the Red Raiders in 2019. And boy would this be ending the season on a high note if they can beat the Longhorns on the road to end the season. For Texas, it’s a reeling team that is playing its Senior Day at 11 a.m. on Black Friday. The recipe for a sluggish start. Also, both teams are playing close games. Five of the past six Texas Tech losses were by 10 points or less. Meantime, Texas’ Big 12 games have been decided by an average of 6.8 points per game. Something else to consider, Texas has given up the most sacks in the Big 12, while ranking 9th in the Big 12 in sacking the QB. Tech has been much better in this category (6th in sacks by and 2nd in sacks against). This will be a tight game so give me a Tech cover.

The Pick: Texas Tech +10

 

TCU vs. West Virginia

The Horned Frogs are home for the final game of the regular season where a win would give make them bowl eligible, which is critical for this young team. However this game won’t be a breeze. WVU has been playing better recently and has an underrated defense. The Mountaineers rank second in the Big 12 in sacks, while TCU has given up the second-most sacks in the conference. Now the Mountaineers do have the worst pass defense in the Big 12, but can TCU take advantage of that? It seems unlikely as the passing game has struggled all season for the Horned Frogs. Throw in the fact that the weather is not expected to be ideal, with thunderstorms likely and temperatures around 50 degrees. Jarret Doege has made the WVU offense look better as well and the Bowling Green transfer is not some rookie playing in one of his first road games. He’s done it before, heck he won two weeks ago in Manhattan, a much more difficult environment than Fort Worth.

The Pick: West Virginia +13.5

Bonus Pick: Under 45

Kansas vs. Baylor

Baylor has launched into the top 10 in the CFB Playoff rankings, but knows it needs to impress the committee and get a little help to make the top four. The best thing they can do is blow out Kansas, who has kept it surprisingly close in some games this year. Baylor should just look to last week when Iowa State needed to hang on late to beat the Jayhawks. Matt Rhule won’t let his team be caught off guard. Kansas was able to take advantage of an Iowa State pass defense that is not its strong suit this season (7th in the Big 12), while Baylor’s is first. KU will need to really get it going to keep pace with BU. Plus, after Kansas nearly got the road win last week, I could see a hangover taking place for the Jayhawks.

The Pick: Baylor -14

Kansas State vs. Iowa State

Farmageddon is here. One of the most underrated rivalries in college football. Everyone is looking at these two team and thinking it’s 1999. But it’s not. Iowa State has the second-most efficient passing attack in the Big 12 and it’s passing defense ranks seventh in the Big 12, which could open up opportunities for Skylar Thompson and the Wildcats. Meantime, Kansas State’s pass defense ranks ninth in the conference and could have a really hard time slowing down Brock Purdy. And how about Breece Hall going up against K-State’s ninth-ranked rushing defense in the Big 12. I don’t love the spread, but I feel pretty good about these teams putting some points on the board.

The Pick: Over 46

 

Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma is in contention for the College Football Playoff, but they have won four-straight games by four, three, one and seven points. Not exactly domination. They’re 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games. Meantime, Oklahoma State is the hottest team in the Big 12 and they’re home. They’ve won four in a row and covered the spread in all four games. They’re 9-2 against the spread this season and are 3-1 at home, while OU is 1-3 covering the number on the road. Dru Brown’s first game as starter for OSU went well last week with zero turnovers on the road. That’s key in any game, but especially a rivalry match up and OU is the worst team in the Big 12 at creating turnovers. OSU will hang around in this one.

The Pick: Oklahoma State +13

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