The Big 12 football season is here, which means it’s time for our BIG 12 football picks against the spread. Our picks went 0-1 against the spread last week and are 14-5 for the season! So let’s go!
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TCU vs. Oklahoma
Gary Patterson kept it closer than he was expected to last season in a 28-24 loss. This year, TCU is the more experienced team and is home. The Sooners are having issues turning the ball over leading the Big 12 with nine so far this season, while also giving up 11 sacks. The TCU D is licking its chops, and Max Duggan can do enough to keep this game tight. I get nearly a touchdown with Gary Patterson at home against a freshman quarterback? Sign me up.
Kansas State vs. Kansas
Pooka Williams is gone for KU. The Jayhawks are in dire straights as a program. Kansas State has been very good at this season is the red zone, where they’re first in the Big 12 in red zone efficiency on offense and rank second in red zone defense. Kansas ranks eighth in red zone offense and 10th in red zone defense. Throw in the uncertainty at QB for KU, while the Jayhawks are coming off a long road trip to WVU and the Wildcats have been resting at home, and I see the Wildcats, behind freshman QB Will Howard who had an extra week to learn the playbook, rolling to a comfortable win.
The Pick: Kansas State -20
Texas vs. Baylor
The amount of drama surrounding the Texas Longhorns on and off the field is not something to envy. I still don’t know how good Baylor is due to so many games being impacted by COVID. But I do know this, they’re good enough to not be nearly a double-digit dog against a Texas team that is one on-side kick recovery away from being 0-3 in the Big 12. Plus, Tom Herman is a good coach as an underdog, not a favorite. Baylor players, like TCU, always plays with a chip on its shoulder against UT. That happens again this weekend.
The Pick: Baylor +10
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
This is the toughest game of the weekend to pick, but for me it comes down to the fact that Oklahoma State has had 21 days off since its last game. That’s too long. And what is going on with QB? Is Mike Gundy really going to try the two-QB system? Regardless, Iowa State has played the much better competition thus far. Oklahoma State is really good and I believe in the defense, but they’ve also played two of the worst offenses in the league in West Virginia and Kansas. Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, and company are a different beast. I’ll take the dogs.
The Pick: Iowa State +3.5 (I got in early, I would buy the .5 or 1 point if you have to)
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
You’re telling me I get the best defense in the country against a back up, transfer QB making his first start of the season? Yes, I always have concerns for WVU making the longest road trip in the Big 12. But this is not Dana Holgorsen’s Mountaineers. Defense travels. WVU leads the Big 12 in sacks this season, while Tech ranks 9th of 10 Big 12 teams in red zone offense, only scoring on 13 of 18 trips. On the other side, Tech has given up at least 30 points in every game. The Mountaineers will handle the Red Raiders in Lubbock.
The Pick: West Virginia -2.5
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