NCAA Tournament: Baylor vs. Hartford Preview and Prediction
The Baylor Bears will open the 2021 NCAA Tournament with the Hartford Hawks in the first round on Friday. Here is a preview of the game.
No. 1 Baylor (22-2) vs. No. 16 Hartford (15-8), 2:30 p.m. CT, Friday, TV: TruTV
Region: South
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium Unity (South)
National rankings: Baylor: No. 3 (AP), No. 3 (USA Today); Hartford: No ranking.
Path to March Madness: Baylor: At-large berth (lost in Big 12 Tournament semifinals); Hartford: Automatic qualifier (won America East Conference tournament title).
NCAA Tournament history: Baylor and Hartford have never met in the NCAA Tournament.
Winner faces: North Carolina or Wisconsin in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday.
Projected starting lineups
Baylor: G Jared Butler, G Davion Mitchell, G MaCio Teague, G Mark Vital, F Flo Thamba.
Hartford: G Austin Williams, G Traci Carter, F Hunter Marks, F Miroslav Stafl, G D.J. Mitchell.
READ MORE: 2021 NCAA Tournament: Schedule, Printable Bracket, Dates and Times
READ MORE: The Big 12’s Easiest, Hardest Paths to the Sweet 16
Player to watch
Baylor: Jared Butler. The junior guard was the Associated Press Big 12 Player of the Year and the Heartland College Sports Big 12 Player of the Year. The Bears have four different guards that can take over a game. But Butler has been the most consistent one this season. Butler is the Bears’ leading scorer, averaging 17.1 point per game. He’s also averaging 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. Butler has had several high-ceiling games this year. Plus, since the five-point game against Kansas on Feb. 27, the future NBA first-round pick has averaged 20 points per game. Teammates like Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague have had bigger games than Butler the past half-dozen games, but if the Bears are going to make a deep tournament run, Butler has to be ON.
Hartford: Austin Williams. The redshirt senior has traveled a long road to being a star with the Hawks. After a year at Seton Hall Prep, he spent two seasons at Marist, where he averaged less than six points a game. Then, before last season, he transferred to Hartford and had to sit out a season due to transfer rules. With the Hawks, he’s emerged as their leading scorer, averaging 13.7 points per game. He’s also averaging 6.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. The 6-foot-4 forward will always be a part of Hartford history, as the Hawks are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in program history.
Heading into the NCAA Tournament
Baylor: The Bears have won five of their seven games since they returned from their long COVID-19 pause, with losses to Kansas and to Oklahoma State. Those losses were different, though. The Bears simply didn’t show up against the Jayhawks. Against Oklahoma State, the Bears played well, but in the last few minutes of that game the Bears, for the first time this season, didn’t look like they knew what they were doing. That probably won’t be an issue moving forward. Something tells me that head coach Scott Drew spent plenty of time tweaking those issues during that extra day the Bears hard after the Big 12 Tournament loss. The Bears have five players shooting better than 38 percent from the 3-point line, including MaCio Teague (16.2 ppg), Davion Mitchell (14.1 ppg), Adam Flagler (8.7 ppg) and Matthew Mayer (8.0 ppg). With Flo Thamba in the starting lineup and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua coming off the bench, the Bears get enough from the pair for a solid inside game. Plus, there’s Mark Vital, who does everything. Expect the Bears to ride those eight players as far as they can in this tournament.
Hartford: The Hawks, as mentioned, are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance. They’re a guard-driven team, with Williams leading the way. After that, guards Traci Carter (11.7 ppg) and Moses Flowers (11.6 ppg) are the next two top scorers. Forward Miroslav Stafl (10.4 ppg) is the other double-digit scorer, but he doesn’t lead the team in rebounding. That’s Williams. Flowers won’t play in the tournament, as he left the lineup at the end of December due to hip surgery. So, the fact that the Hawks got this far, even without their dynamic sophomore, is something else. The Hawks got into the Big Dance on the strength of five straight wins to end the season.
Who wins?
Baylor. Yes, we can make all the jokes we want about the fact that one No. 16 seed has beaten one No. 1 seed in the history of the NCAA Tournament. But the fact is that, on paper or in reality, Baylor is a much better team than the Hawks. It would take a herculean effort on Hartford’s part to win this game. The Bears move on, and I have a hunch they will look pretty dominant doing it.
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