NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma State vs. Liberty Preview and Prediction
The Oklahoma State Cowboys will face the Liberty Flames in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday in Indiana. Here is a preview of the game.
No. 4 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs. No. 13 Liberty (23-5), 5:25 p.m. CT, Friday, TV: TBS
Region: Midwest
Location: Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, Indiana
National rankings: Oklahoma State: No. 11 (AP), No. 12 (USA Today); Liberty: No ranking.
Path to March Madness: Oklahoma State: At-large berth (lost in Big 12 Tournament semifinals); Liberty: Automatic qualifier (won Atlantic Sun Conference tournament title).
NCAA Tournament history: Oklahoma State and Liberty have never met in the NCAA Tournament.
Winner faces: Tennessee or Oregon State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday.
READ MORE: 2021 NCAA Tournament: Schedule, Printable Bracket, Dates and Times
READ MORE: The Big 12’s Easiest, Hardest Paths to the Sweet 16
Projected starting lineups
Oklahoma State: F Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe, F Kalib Boone, G Bryce Williams, G Avery Anderson III, G Cade Cunningham
Liberty: F Kyle Rode, F Blake Preston, G Chris Parker, G Darius McGhee, G Elijah Cuffee
Player to watch
Oklahoma State: Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe. You’ve heard all about Cade Cunningham and Avery Anderson III the past couple of weeks. But the player they call ‘MA’ has shown great development this season. The Toronto, Canada, native was a two-time All-Canadian Player of the Year, a four-star recruit, a Top 60 player in high school basketball and Canada’s highest-ranked prep recruit when head coach Mike Boynton plucked him as part of his 2020 recruiting class (yes, he’s a true freshman, just like Cunningham). Averaging 9.2 points and 5.1 rebounds going into the tournament, his play has gathered steam as the season has progressed. He has scored in double figures nine times this season, and had a stretch in late January and early February where had three double-doubles in four games. He scored 11 points against Texas in the Big 12 title game. He’s one to watch for the future in Stillwater, but he’s playing like his future is now.
Liberty: Darius McGhee. The guard from Roxboro, North Carolina, stirs the drink for this team. He’s played from the jump when he arrived as a freshman two years ago, scoring 7.8 points and a season-high 19 points against Georgetown. Last season his scoring average jumped to 9.5 points per game. But this season he was one of the best guards in the Atlantic Sun Conference, averaging 15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. In the A-Sun title game against North Alabama he scored 21 points. The A-Sun Player of the Year is also one of the better 3-point shooters you’re going to find in this tournament. He’s connected on 84, which is fourth-best in the country. He shoots 41.4 percent from the arc and averages more than three made 3-pointers per game. Keeping track of him will be a key part of OSU’s game plan defensively.
Heading into the NCAA Tournament
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have won eight of their last 10 games going into the NCAA Tournament. Their final eight games have come against ranked teams in the Big 12, and the Cowboys are 6-2. Additionally, their nine wins over AP Top 25 teams teams is best in the country. Freshman Cade Cunningham (20.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.6 spg) was the Big 12 Player of the Year and is a finalist for the National Player of the Year, but these Cowboys are far more than Cunningham. Isaac Likekele (9.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg) finally seems right after the injury that caused him to miss the last week of the regular season. And then there is an abundance of young talent — Avery Anderson III (11.7 ppg), Kalib Boone (9.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe, and Rondel Walker (8.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg). Cunningham’s presence has accelerated the development of these four players, all of which will be back next year. Because Cunningham hasn’t acted or played like a ‘one-and-done’ player, his work as a facilitator of the offense has paid off. He’s relied on his teammates all season, and the plays they weren’t making in January and early February are the plays they’re making now. And that’s what makes this team so dangerous in the NCAA Tournament.
Liberty: Liberty has won the Atlantic Sun for three straight years, so this season marks their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. The Flames have played five NCAA Tournament games in their history, and won one. They boast a starting lineup with some Tournament experience, including Darius McGhee, Elijah Cuffee (9.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Chris Parker (10.3 ppg, 3.5 apg). With McGhee, Cuffee, and Parker all being guards, that gives them an experienced backcourt to handle Tournament pressure. In the frontcourt the Flames have come to rely upon two sophomores — Kyle Rode (7.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Blake Preston (8.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg). Cuffee may end up going down as the most impactful player in program history, as the Flames have won 104 games with him on the roster. He’ll be missed once his eligibility ends. The Flames finished the regular season No. 6 in the College Insider Mid-Major poll. Despite COVID restrictions and schedule adjustments, the Flames did manage to get in five games against high-major teams, with wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina, and losses to Purdue, Missouri, and OSU’s Big 12 mate, TCU.
Who wins?
I’ll take Oklahoma State, but don’t totally discount the Flames from making this a game. Experienced mid-major teams tend to give high-major teams problems, especially when they’re making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in four years like Oklahoma State. The Flames have scored 71 or more points in 17 games this year and never lost. They’ve also never lost a lead with five minutes left this season. But the Flames are 1-5 in games when they’re down entering the last five minutes. The Flames have a roster that can outshoot teams, but they’re not any bigger, size-wise, than the Cowboys. So there aren’t mismatches for the Flames to exploit. Oklahoma State’s experience with ranked teams this season is going to come in handy here, and if you’ve watched them like I have the past few weeks, their maturity is going to keep them from getting rattled. Now, OSU tends to start slow, like their star, Cunningham. But I expect the Cowboys to turn it on in the second half and win.
