Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Preview and Prediction
The Texas Tech Red Raiders will face the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament on Sunday. Here is a preview of the game.
No. 6 Texas Tech (18-10) vs. No. 3 Arkansas (23-6), 5:10 p.m. Sunday, TV: TNT
Region: South
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
National rankings: Texas Tech: No. 21 (AP), No. 21 (USA Today); Arkansas: No. 7 (AP), No. 10 (USA Today).
Path to March Madness: Texas Tech: At-large berth (lost in Big 12 Tournament semifinals); Arkansas: At-large berth (lost in SEC Tournament semifinals).
2021 NCAA Tournament Results: Texas Tech: def. Utah State, 65-53; Arkansas: def. Colgate, 85-68.
NCAA Tournament history: Texas Tech and Arkansas have never met in the NCAA Tournament.
Winner faces: Florida or Oral Roberts in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament next week.
READ MORE: 2021 NCAA Tournament: Schedule, Printable Bracket, Dates and Times
READ MORE: Texas Tech Beats Utah State in NCAA Tournament First Round
Projected starting lineups
Texas Tech: F Marcus Santos-Silva, G/F Terrence Shannon Jr., G Kevin McCullar, G Kyler Edwards, G Mac McClung.
Arkansas: F Connor Vanover, F Justin Smith, G Davonte Davis, G Moses Moody, G Jalen Tate.
Player to watch
Texas Tech: G Mac McClung. McClung led the Red Raiders with 16 points in Friday’s win over Utah State, and it took him some time to get going (the same held true for the entire team). But, once McClung gets going, he tends to keep going, and that’s good news for the Red Raiders going into the Arkansas game. McClung was an All-Big 12 First Team pick, and for obvious reasons. His body of work this season includes 15.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. But what the Red Raiders need from him is to shoot well from outside, especially from the 3, where he’s only shooting 33.3 percent this season. He was 50 percent from the arc against the Aggies. The Red Raiders will take that all day.
Arkansas: F Justin Smith: There’s a ton of talk about the freshman, Moses Moody, and since he’s Arkansas’ leading scorer this season (17.4 ppg), there is good reason for that. But Smith had a DAY against Colgate, becoming the first Razorback to go for at least 29 points and at least 13 rebounds in a NCAA Tournament game since Carlos Williamson did it in 1994. Those Razorbacks went on to win the 1994 national championship. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but don’t ignore Smith. He’s averaged 13 points and 6.8 rebounds this season, and Friday was a great time for the 6-foot-7 senior to put together his season-high in points.
Right now in the NCAA Tournament
Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have been a team of streaks, and that was concerning going into the NCAA Tournament. Since Jan. 5, the Red Raiders have won three straight, lost two straight, won three straight, lost three straight, won three straight and then lost two straight, including their Big 12 Tournament loss to Texas. If there’s any good news, it’s that Tech broke their last two-game losing streak with a three-game winning streak, and the Red Raiders started a new ‘streak’ with the win over Utah State. The Red Raiders’ defense came up huge for Texas Tech. Playing a 7-footer in Neemias Queta was a challenge, but through double-team rules and good help defense the Red Raiders were able to overcome Queta’s double-double and seven blocked shots. That will carry over into the game with Arkansas, as Moses Moody presents singular challenges. But, something tells me the Red Raiders’ work against Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham will help sent them up for potential success. Tech played nine players against USU, with four hitting double figures — McClung, Edwards (12), McCullar (10), and Shannon (10). Micah Peavy also had seven points off the bench. Texas Tech had another one of their characteristic slow starts to start the game, but the way they picked up steam in the second half of the game is a good piece of momentum going into the second round.
Arkansas: The expectation was a high-scoring game with Colgate, and that’s what we got. The Razorbacks, like the Red Raiders, started slow, but they picked up steam and put Colgate away in the second half. Five different players hit double figures — Smith, Davis (12), Moody (12), Tate (15), and JD Notae, who came off the bench to score 14 points in 32 minutes. Razorbacks coach Eric Musselman pulled Vanover off the court early in the game, and the sophomore center only played four minutes. That’s a trend, as Vanover played just eight minutes against Missouri in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals and five minutes against LSU in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Sliding Notae in made the Razorbacks’ lineup smaller (Notae is just 6-foot-1, while Vanover is 7-foot-3). The reality is Musselman played just five players at least 30 minutes, and Desi Sills was the only other player with double figure minutes. Arkansas shot well (44.6 percent from the floor), won the turnover battle (+12) and had 13 steals. But, even with Smith’s huge game, the Razorbacks were outrebounded (minus-5) and that didn’t please Musselman after the game.
Who wins?
There isn’t much to connect the two teams here. Arkansas did play Oklahoma State in January, with the Cowboys winning, 81-77. To me, all that really means is that the Razorbacks feel like a Big 12-level opponent. That means the kind of game the Red Raiders played against Utah State — physical, defensive, and low-scoring — is what they need. The Razorbacks are a much higher-scoring team than the Aggies. Four different Razorbacks are averaging double figures. Moody will get a lot of attention, but the Red Raiders need to keep tabs on Smith, too. The Razorbacks have won 10 of their last 11. They’re one of the hottest teams in the tournament at the moment. If this game creeps into the 70s, then the Razorbacks have a real good chance to win, and that’s where I see it going — somewhere in the low 70s, where the Red Raiders have to shoot a quality game to win to complement their defense. I think the Red Raiders will figure out a way to get that shooting going again and get to the Sweet 16 for the third straight tournament.
