It’s season two for Baylor head coach Dave Aranda, and the Bears are looking to move up in the conference standings in 2021. Quarterback Charlie Brewer transferred to Utah, leaving Gerry Bohanon and Jacob Zeno to battle for the starting quarterback job. The wide receiving corps will be a strength of the team, and the defense should be improved, as it returns 22 players that took significant snaps in 2020.
The over/under on wins for the Bears is 5.5. That may seem high after a 2-7 finish in 2020, but the schedule is favorable. Especially the first three games of the season. Let’s take a deeper dive.
September 4 at Texas State
Texas State plays in the Sun Belt Conference and was picked fourth in their division in the preseason media poll. Baylor is currently a 13.5 point favorite and should take care of business here.
September 11 vs. Texas Southern
Gotta go with Baylor here over FCS Texas Southern.
September 18 at Kansas
Kansas is going to struggle to get wins this season, especially early. Baylor should get this one.
September 25 vs. Iowa State
Baylor should be 3-0 when they host Iowa State. It will be the first real test for their defense against Iowa State’s high-powered offense. I expect that Iowa State will get the victory and hand Baylor its first loss on the season.
October 2 at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State whipped Baylor pretty good in the season finale last season, winning 42-3. I think Baylor will close the gap a bit, but I’m still going with Oklahoma State to get the win.
October 9 vs West Virginia
West Virginia won last season’s game in double overtime. They return a lot of experience offensively but have to replace a lot on defense. Baylor will have the home-field advantage, but I think West Virginia likely gets the win here.
October 16 vs. BYU
A non-conference game against BYU right smack dab in the middle of the Big 12 conference season? BYU finished 11-1 last season and was ranked number 11 in the final AP football poll. They lost their starting quarterback as well as a few key pieces on offense. They probably won’t be as good as last year, but this is a solid program that is looking to reload instead of rebuild. This one is kind of hard to predict at this point, but I’m going with BYU.
October 30 vs. Texas
Texas is picked to finish third in the league and should have enough firepower to take care of the Bears.
November 6 at TCU
TCU starting quarterback Max Duggan is starting his third season and has some weapons at running back and receiver. The TCU defense should be stout as usual. Considering the questions about Baylor and what we know about TCU, I’m going with the Horned Frogs in this one.
November 13 vs. Oklahoma
It will help to get the Sooners at home, but I’m not predicting an upset here.
November 20 at Kansas State
K-State should be good on offense this season but has some questions on defense. While I don’t have a strong feeling either way on this one, I’m going with K-State.
November 27 vs. Texas Tech
Baylor should break their losing streak by beating Texas Tech at home to end the season.
Season Prediction: 4-8.
Best Case: 9-3. I think the only definite losses on the schedule are Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Texas.
Worst Case: 3-9. I see three for sure wins on the schedule and a lot of swing games.
The bet: I’d bet the under, but I don’t feel good about it. Baylor could finish anywhere between 9-3 and 3-9 as far as I’m concerned.