Well it’s a new season of college football and that means a fresh slate for my Big 12 football picks against the spread.
Our Week 11 picks went 3-2, so we are 25-29-1 on the season, and now it’s on to Week 12 with five games to pick. Might be best to fade my picks, let’s see.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
Both teams have struggled against the spread this season at 4-6, but Iowa State is 5-1 against the spread vs. Oklahoma in their last six games. Iowa State is the healthier team right now and they bring in a Top 10 defense in the country. We saw how much OU’s offense struggled last week against Baylor, which was the best defense OU had seen all season. This is not the team we expected Lincoln Riley to field this season and that will be apparent again on Saturday.
The Pick: Iowa State +3.5
West Virginia vs. Texas
Boy, Texas is a mess, huh? That’s both on and off the field. They’re 0-5 against the sprad in their last five games, plus 3-6 against the spread in their last nine road games. Bijan Robinson is done for the season and UT’s losses for injury, transfer, etc. seems to keep growing. WVU is home and Neal Brown needs this one to get himself and his team back on track.
The Pick: West Virginia -3
Kansas State vs. Baylor
Both teams are on a roll, with Baylor 4-1 against the spread and Kansas State is 4-1-1 against the spread. The Wildcats have won four in a row, but they’re beating the worst four teams in the Big 12. They’re the teams they’re supposed to beat, but Baylor is not one of those teams. BU is coming off a big win over Oklahoma, but I don’t expect a hangover with this team still in the hunt for a Big 12 title. K-State is 2nd in the Big 12 in sacks, but the BU offensive line has given up the fewest sacks in the league.
The Pick: Baylor +1
TCU vs. Kansas
TCU is limping to the finish line dealing with an interim head coach and injuries. In fact, Jerry Kill even mentioned having to possibly use a wide receiver at quarterback. They’re 2-7 against the spread this season. And yes, KU may have a huge hangover after beating Texas last week, they’ve historically also played well against TCU, going 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 meetings. TCU just doesn’t deserve to be this big a favorite against anyone.
The Pick: Kansas +21
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Tech is coming off a thrilling and unexpected win over Iowa State. They’re bowl eligible and are pleased. Oklahoma State is playing for a CFB Playoff spot and is still getting the short end of the stick from the committee. The Pokes are on a roll against Vegas too, going 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games. I think that continues again on Saturday night in Lubbock.
The Pick: Oklahoma State -10