Kansas State Wildcats

Why K-State Football Over 6.5 Wins is the Best Big 12 Bet in 2022

NCAA Football: Kansas State at Texas Tech

The fact that Vegas has Kansas State’s total at just 6.5 wins is the disrespect that Wildcats fans have accepted for years. Kansas State finished the 2021 regular season 7-5 before defeating LSU in the Texas Bowl 42-20, and look to be even better this upcoming season.


Offensive Reasons

Although, Kansas State lost long-time starter Skylar Thompson, who was drafted by the Miami Dolphins in the 2022 NFL Draft, they reloaded at the quarterback position, bringing in Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez. The Wildcats landing Martinez didn’t seem to get the news coverage that it deserved. Martinez became the first player in school history for Nebraska with four 1,000-yard passing seasons, as well as averaging 308.0 yards of total offense per game, breaking his own school record set his freshman year. At the conclusion of the 2021 season, the former Nebraska quarterback was one of just three active FBS players with 8,000 career passing yards and 2,000 career rushing yards. This was all behind one of the worst offensive lines in the country last season, who ranked 282nd out of 295 teams according to PFF.

The Wildcats, also, have one of the 52 players on the Walter Camp Player of the Year watch list ahead of the 2022 season in Deuce Vaughn. The 5’6” running back has accumulated plenty of preseason honors, and looks to continue the momentum he has racked up, entering the 2022 season ranking first among all active non-kickers in career points per game (8.1).

Vaughn is also entering the season ranked third in Big 12 history scrimmage yards per touch (6.8). The excitement with the pairing of Martinez and Vaughn in the backfield has been brewing since the news of Martinez’s transfer, and continued to grow stronger with the anticipation of Collin Klein entering his first season as offensive coordinator.


Defensive Reasons

On the other side of the ball, Kansas State brings back one of the best defensive players in the conference, in Felix Anudike-Uzomah. Much like Vaughn, Anudike-Uzomah has received multiple preseason honors himself, including being named to the Bronko Nagurski Trophy watch list. The junior defensive end enters the 2022 season ranked second in the country in forced fumbles per game (0.33) and third in sacks per game (0.67). Andudike-Uzomah has some extra motivation going into the season, as he is just three forced fumbles shy of tying the school’s record, while being 6.5 sacks away from entering Kansas State’s career top-10 list.

The Schedule

The 2022 schedule for the Wildcats goes as follows:

  • vs. South Dakota
  • vs. Missouri
  • vs. Tulane
  • @ Oklahoma
  • vs. Texas Tech
  • @ Iowa State
  • @ TCU
  • vs. Oklahoma State
  • vs. Texas
  • @ Baylor
  • @ West Virginia
  • vs. Kansas

Out of these 12 games, I can’t see Kansas State dropping six of them, barring any major injuries. Although they will go on the road for Oklahoma and Baylor, two of the top four favorites to win the conference, the Wildcats get to face Oklahoma State and Texas in Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The Wildcats currently sit at fifth to win the Big 12 Conference at +1200, odds provided by BetMGM.

The schedule is often times the make-or-break reason a team hits an over. And for K-State, they should be 3-0 after the non-conference, especially given the fact that all three games are at home. Also, their bye week is perfectly situated in mid-October between two road games (Iowa State and TCU). Oklahoma State and Texas back-to-back at home set up nicely as well, for a split, hopefully, at worst. Importantly as well, they get teams with new quarterbacks early in the season, such as Oklahoma and Iowa State. If West Virginia and Kansas are struggling down the stretch with little motivation, those two games to wrap up the season could be easier than they look now on paper.

Granted, with all of this being said, Vegas is still adding hotels and casinos for a reason, and it’s because Vegas always wins. Make sure to bet responsibly. But of course, it’s responsible to bet the K-State over. Trust me.

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