HCS Roundtable: Big 12 Week 1 Locks of the Week
The 2022 season got off to a great start on Thursday night as we were treated to an early Game of the Year candidate with the Backyard Brawl. West Virginia lost the game 38-31, but with the line closing at Pitt -7.5, the Mountaineers did get a win against the spread (ATS).
We also got to see the Oklahoma State offense put up a flurry of points against Central Michigan, but failed to cover after giving up 44 points to the Chippewas.
There are still several interesting games on the docket this weekend in the Big 12, and several with intriguing lines from a betting standpoint. With that in mind here are the Heartland College Sports’ staffs Big 12 locks of the week.
Bryan Clinton
Game: Oklahoma (-31) vs. UTEP
Oklahoma is set to kickoff the Brent Venables era against the UTEP Miners on Saturday and are currently 31-point favorites. UTEP lost its opener to North Texas last week 31-13 in a game that was much more competitive than the box score would indicate. The Miners squandered several chances to put points on the board, but this bet is all about the Sooners’ offense. I believe Oklahoma will put up nearly 57 points on its own, and its defense will be playing under a new, demanding scheme under Venables. A couple of mishaps from Oklahoma defensively leads to enough points from UTEP to hit the over easily.
Lock: Over (O/U 57)
Pete Mundo
Game: Texas (-38.5) vs. UL Monroe
I know, Texas is talented. They can win this game by 39 points. But they have no incentive to do that. Alabama is on deck and Steve Sarkisian needs to get this game over with early and then move on to next week. He needs to keep the playbook vanilla and make sure his guys get enough reps to feel comfortable ahead of next week, but not risk injury. Meantime, UL Monroe has nothing to lose heading to Austin with a veteran staff and two new coordinators, which always makes it tough to scheme against when you have both sides of the ball implementing new systems.
Texas will win this game, but let’s not forget they ended last season 1-6 against the spread, and once again, it feels like this love from the oddsmakers is too much for the Longhorns. I’ll take a feisty UL Monroe squad with nothing to lose to cover the nearly six-touchdown spread.
Lock: UL Monroe +38.5
Matthew Postins
Game: Texas (-38.5) vs. UL Monroe
I’ll preface this by saying that I’m the last person you should be taking gambling advice from. I only care about winning and losing. But, the last time Texas faced ULM the Longhorns won 59-20, or by 39 points. Since the line for the game is 37.5 points, I’ll take Texas to cover.
Lock: Texas -38.5
