One of the beautiful things about college football is the parody and chaos that we see each and every week. There are, after all, 22 moving parts on the field every time that the ball is snapped, and just one player out of place can change the course of a game, hell even a season, in just one play.
While watching football and understanding the nuances of what is going takes a bit of experience, the real talent is in being able to put your money where your mouth is when it comes to betting on the world’s greatest sport.
Here are some betting trends you should pay attention to in Week 2 of Big 12 action, with an upset, a lock, and a bad bet to avoid on Saturday.
Underdog to Watch: No. 9 Baylor vs No. 21 BYU (-3)
Yes, the ninth-ranked Bears are a dog on the road to the No. 21 BYU Cougars. If you follow betting trends, you know that home teams typically get three points for homefield advantage. If you take that away, this game is a pick’em. While the Cougars have the experience advantage at quarterback with Jarren Hall, Baylor is tough in the trenches, and that is where the difference is made from game-to-game. Last season, Gerry Bohanon and a strong running game led BU to a 38-24 victory in Waco. This year won’t be nearly as lopsided, but in a week full of fantastic games in the Big 12, this feels like the obvious underdog pick to win outright.
Saturday Lock: Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State OVER (57)
This one was easy for me, and for a couple of reasons. First, the Oklahoma State offense did whatever it wanted last week as it piled up 58 points against Central Michigan. I expect that to continue this week against Arizona State. Secondly, Arizona State QB Emory Jones could prove to be an issue for the Pokes if they don’t figure out some things defensively. The Florida transfer is a playmaker and I believe he will lead the Sun Devils to enough points for the over to hit in this game relatively easily.
Bad Bet of the Week: Kansas vs. West Virginia (-13.5)
The Jayhawks and the Mountaineers are set to kickoff Big 12 play this weekend in an intriguing game that I am staying as far away from as I can from a betting standpoint. We have head the hype out of Lawrence all summer, that this team is no longer interested in “moral victories.” Well, that certainly showed when they took Tennessee Tech out behind the woodshed last weekend. On the flip side of things, West Virginia is coming off a heart-breaking loss in the Backyard Brawl, a game that it came very close to winning. Any signs or hints of an emotional hangover could be the spark that KU needs to finally get momentum rolling in Big 12 play. Remember, this game was extremely close last season, with WVU edging it out 34-28 in the final week of the regular season. Stay away from this game as both teams are hard to decipher heading into it.