College football is here and that means our Big 12 football picks against the spread are also returning with Week 10 getting underway! The Big 12 is finally fully into conference play. We are looking to have a bounce-back week after the Big 12 picks went 3-1 against the spread last week and are now 30-20-2 against the spread this season.
Here we go with Week 10!
Texas Tech at TCU
Texas Tech feels like a team that is starting to fade. Also, what’s the plan at QB after all three guys got a shot on Saturday against Baylor? The offensive line gave up several sacks to Baylor last week and Tech has thrown a Big 12-worst 15 interceptions this season, while TCU ranks second in takeaways in the Big 12. Plus, I think TCU has extra motivation after getting slighted by the CFB Playoff committee on Tuesday night. TCU wins big and covers.
The Pick: TCU -8
Baylor at Oklahoma
Oklahoma and Baylor are both riding two-game winning streaks, but who is actually the better team? Baylor’s line play on both sides of the ball has dramatically improved, and it is the Bears who are still in the Big 12 Championship hunt, while OU is essentially out of the picture. Also, Baylor gets to go up against Oklahoma’s last-place rushing defense (by a wide margin), which should provide opportunities for Baylor’s speed to be on full display this weekend in Norman. Meantime, Baylor’s rushing defense is the best in the Big 12. And if OU can’t run the ball and becomes to reliant on Dillon Gabriel, we’ve seen that not work out well for OU this season. Plus, is Norman going to be as intimidating as usual given OU’s struggles this season? We will see, but I think the wrong team is favored here. I’m taking the underdog.
The Pick: Baylor +3.5
Oklahoma State at Kansas
This is the hardest game to pick of the week. We don’t know the status of both starting quarterbacks, Oklahoma State got embarrassed last week and Kansas is coming off a bye. But ultimately, Spencer Sanders, even if he plays, is banged up. Jalon Daniels is trending towards playing, and even if he doesn’t, KU’s offense can hum with Jason Bean. Oklahoma State’s defense has been bad, ranking worst in the Big 12 in passing yards per game allowed and third-worst in rushing yards per game allowed. Kansas is home, rested and healthier and gets the win to become bowl eligible.
The Pick: Kansas (pick ’em)
West Virginia at Iowa State
Both teams aren’t very good. But the line is too big. Forget the stats. Iowa State’s offense doesn’t deserve to be a seven-point favorite over any conference opponent. Maybe they’ll prove me completely wrong and blow out WVU, in which case Neal Brown should probably get the USC-Lane Kiffin treatment and be left on the tarmac. But if I’m getting a full touchdown for the Mountaineers, I’m grabbing it, simply because of the ISU offense and the struggles its had this season.
The Pick: West Virginia +7
Texas at Kansas State
Death, taxes and Texas struggling in Manhattan.
The Longhorns are only 3-7 all-time at Kansas State and just 1-8 against the spread. On top of that, Quinn Ewers is set to play in possibly his toughest road environment yet, in what will only be his second career start on the road in college (Oklahoma State was his first and that didn’t go well). Kansas State will control time of possession, is clicking on all cylinders, and the home crowd will be lit for this night match up with a Big 12 title appearance looking more likely by the week.
The Pick: Kansas State +3