One of the beautiful things about college football is the parity and chaos that we see each and every week. There are, after all, 22 moving parts on the field every time that the ball is snapped, and just one player out of place can change the course of a game, hell even a season, in just one play.
While watching football and understanding the nuances of what is going on takes a bit of experience, the real talent is in being able to put your money where your mouth is when it comes to betting on the world’s greatest sport.
Here are some betting trends you should pay attention to in Week 11 of Big 12 action, with an upset, a lock, and a bad bet to avoid on Saturday.
UNDERDOG TO WATCH: Kansas (+4) vs. Texas Tech
The Kansas Jayhawks are bowl eligible, but I’m not convinced that they are quite done in the Big 12 slate. This week, KU is a four-point underdog to Texas Tech in Lubbock, but I’m not shying away from the Jayhawks on the road. I have a feeling that we might see superstar quarterback Jalon Daniels back on the field for Kansas, who was 5-0 before suffering an injury against TCU. With his return, Kansas will get an extra shot of juice going into this game, and Tech will find themselves in a dogfight. Despite being the road team and losing three of their last four, give me KU as the underdog of the week.
Underdogs for 2022: 4-5 SU; 6-3 ATS
LOCK OF THE WEEK: TCU (+7.5) vs. Texas
Somehow, the No. 4 team in the nation is getting 7.5 points to a 6-3 Texas Longhorns team, and I’m not really sure why. Quentin Johnston was out last week with a The Horned Frogs’ offense is scoring 43.1 points per game, and that alone tells me that they can win this game. While Texas is good at home, I think that TCU is starting to smell blood in the water with regard to a Big 12 championship and a College Football Playoff appearance, and a win over an inconsistent but talented Longhorns team will get them one step closer to achieving that. However, if the Frogs do falter and drop a game, it will be by less than a touchdown.
Locks for 2022: 4-5
BAD BET OF THE WEEK: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State OVER (48.5)
If Spencer Sanders is unable to go in this game, there might not be enough offensive firepower to hit the over in this game, no matter how much lower this game’s O/U seems than the rest of the league. Big 12 O/U’s have settled into the 60s recently, and a number as low as 48.5 might seem like easy money, but don’t take the bait. Iowa State’s offense ranks 10th in the Big 12, and Oklahoma State has scored 16 points total in the last two weeks against K-State and Kansas. The Iowa State defense is the standard in this conference, and that’s a tough unit to face without your starting quarterback, so give me the under in this one, and with confidence.
Bad Bets for 2022: 7-2