College football is here and that means our Big 12 football picks against the spread are also returning with Week 10 getting underway! The Big 12 is finally fully into conference play. We are looking to have a bounce-back week after the Big 12 picks went 3-2 against the spread last week and are now 33-22-2 against the spread this season.
Here we go with Week 11!
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
The Mountaineers aren’t very good, but they’re much better at home than on the road. WVU is 0-3 on the road in Big 12 play and has averaged just 14.7 points per game in those contests, while at home they are 1-2 and average 38.7 points per game. Oklahoma’s defense has been really disappointing this season and Morgantown is always a tough road trip. Plus, WVU’s rush defense is decent, and the Sooners need to get the ground game going if they want to win big. And a loss means that WVU is going to miss a bowl game for another year and may end Neal Brown’s tenure in Morgantown.
The Pick: West Virginia +7
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
I never thought I’d do this. NEVER. But Iowa State is a favorite in Stillwater this week and it actually makes sense. OSU is a reeling, banged-up team that has lost three of four and likely won’t have Spencer Sanders as they go up against the Iowa State defense that finally got a win last week and has some confidence on the offensive side after scoring 31 vs. WVU last week. As for that offense, it goes up against an Oklahoma State defense that has been absolutely torched in recent weeks, giving up over 80 points the last two games, plus 350 yards in just the first half against Kansas last week. Give me the Cyclones to win and cover!
The Pick: Iowa State -1
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech is reeling, having lost four of five games since their win over Texas. And the offensive line is a big reason why, giving up 34 sacks in nine games. It won’t get easier as Kansas is second in the Big 12 with 21 sacks. Plus, KU is refreshed after their bye week and that was on display last week against Oklahoma State. It doesn’t matter if it’s Jason Bean or Jalon Daniels at QB for KU, but Texas Tech’s QB situation remains much more in flux. The wrong team is favored in this one. Give me the underdog.
The Pick: Kansas +3.5
Kansas State vs. Baylor
The Bears are riding high, winners of three in a row in Big 12 play and they’re back in the Big 12 title race after a 1-2 start. Kansas State feels like it’s reeling, having lost two of their last three. Plus, history is on Baylor’s side here. Kansas State has won in Waco once in the last 20 years; 2016 when Jim Grobe was Baylor’s interim coach after Art Briles got fired. Baylor is playing its best football at the right time and I think their backfield speed will wear down the Cats.
The Pick: Baylor -2.5
TCU vs. Texas
This is a historic line. No Top-5 team has ever been this big of an underdog to a team outside the Top 10. So what gives? I know Texas is home and its at night. But this is crazy. TCU’s passing game has to go after the UT secondary, while the Frogs need to do their best to slow down Bijan Robinson. But ultimately, all Texas schools get up to play the Longhorns, and TCU is also the more disciplined team, as Texas has committed the most penalties in the Big 12 this season. I’m also not buying the Gary Patterson angle is being a big deal.
The Pick: TCU +7