College football is here and that means our Big 12 football picks against the spread are also returning with Week 10 getting underway! The Big 12 is finally fully into conference play. We are looking to have a bounce-back week after the Big 12 picks went 2-3 against the spread last week and are now 35-25-2 against the spread this season.
Here we go with Week 12!
TCU vs. Baylor
I think the TCU Horned Frogs are on a mission. And while conventional wisdom might say that Baylor is home and looking to spoil their rival’s best season in nearly a decade, I just don’t think the Bears have the juice to get it done this weekend. TCU’s defense is actually underrated, ranking No. 2 in defensive efficiency in the Big 12 behind Iowa State, and given how much Baylor struggled last week against another top defense in K-State, I don’t see how it gets significantly better this weekend. And where is TCU most vulnerable? They have allowed the third-most sacks in the Big 12, but Baylor has not been able to get to the QB this season, ranking 8th in the league in sacks. Another edge for TCU. So all that being said, I’m on the Frogs and giving up the points.
The Pick: TCU -2.5
Texas vs. Kansas
Well, Kansas won the game last year, and there’s no doubt they will be fired up against this week against the Longhorns, who come in off a loss against TCU. Bijan Robinson concerns me the most for Kansas, given their struggles against the run. However, Kansas’ offense is the most efficient in the Big 12 and could be able to take advantage of Texas’ secondary, which is in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed per game. Texas’ defensive strength is getting to the quarterback, ranking tops in the Big 12, however Kansas has allowed the fewest sacks in the league this season, negating that strength. KU is home for Senior Day and will be fired up. Plus, Texas won’t like the cold in Lawrence.
The Pick: Kansas +10 (buy 1/2 point)
Kansas State vs. West Virginia
The Mountaineers are just a different team at home. On the road, WVU has lost Big 12 games by 18, 38 and 17. At home, they have lost by 13 and 10, while also winning two games (Baylor and Oklahoma) by three a piece. Kansas State comes into this game fairly banged up, despite having a huge road win against Baylor last weekend. Now it’s back to the road for a long trip to Morgantown, which is never easy. Also, WVU knows they’re facing Will Howard, which might give the defense a slight leg up. Kansas State is the much better team, but in this environment, I’ll take WVU to cover.
The Pick: West Virginia +7.5
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Bedlam. Ugly. I never thought I’d say it. At least by the standards of what this game typically is.
Here’s the biggest problem for the Sooners, they won’t be able to take advantage of Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness: the offensive line. OU has recorded the second-fewest sacks in the Big 12 this season and can’t stop the run, meaning even Oklahoma State’s ninth-ranked rushing offense should have some success in Norman on Saturday. Plus, Spencer Sanders is going to start for the Pokes, which completely changes the look of their offense.
The spread is too big for this game, so the underdog is the play.
The Pick: Oklahoma State +7.5
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
This game is almost the reverse from Bedlam in the sense that Texas Tech’s defensive strength, it’s ability to get to the quarterback (ranking first in the Big 12 in sacks), plays to their advantage as Iowa State has given up the second-most sacks in the league. Iowa State only ranks ahead of… Texas Tech, in sacks allowed this season. But the Cyclones don’t get to the QB with the same consistency as the Red Raiders. Combine that with Tech’s offense looking better and Iowa State’s inability to score with consistency and I am going to roll with the underdog.
The Pick: Texas Tech +3.5