Oklahoma Sooners

Texas Tech’s OT Win Over Oklahoma Was ‘Most Improbable’ of 2022

The Texas Tech Red Raiders delivered one of the best performances in Big 12 play this season on Saturday against Oklahoma in a game with 99 total points scored. If you missed the fourth quarter of this game then I highly suggest you check out the highlights because this game was one of the most improbable wins of the 2022 season.

To start things off, let’s take a look at the box score in this one. Between Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Shough, there were 59 completions, 950 total yards of offense, and eight touchdowns. Not to mention a fourth quarter that saw 27 points scored and five lead changes.


The next area that adds to the improbability factor is the fact that the Red Raiders had to claw their way back from an eighteen-point deficit. The Sooners lead Texas Tech 24-6 mid-second quarter when Tyler Shough started to catch fire. Shough led the Red Raiders down the field converting numerous 3rd and 4th downs to extend drives and cut Oklahoma’s lead.

After a thrilling regulation that saw the match tied up at 48-48, the kick of a lifetime came for one Zach Schmidt of Oklahoma. With a chance to win the ball game, Schmidt put up a kick that sailed directly above the right goalpost, and when the referees signaled no good, the internet had a field day. Instant reactions saying that there was no way that kick could have missed flooded Twitter and left Sooner fans in a frenzy.


And according to FootballScoop, their advanced analytics prove this was the “most improbable” win of the college football season.

With the ball back in the hands of the Red Raiders, Tyler Shough put on a final drive to give his team an opportunity to seal the deal with a game-winning kick of their own. Junior kicker Trey Wolfe then puts up the 35-yard game-winner straight through the uprights, and the Red Raider fans storm the field. Final score, Texas Tech 51, Oklahoma 48, ball game.

Here’s the study from FootballScoop:

I’ve tracked every FBS game over the past two seasons — 1,733 and counting — across five statistics to see how often they correlate with winning: rushing yards, passing yards, scoring first, leading at halftime, and winning turnovers. Those 1,733 games have taught us that some correlate more than others: a halftime lead puts you on the path to victory around 80 percent of the time, while out-passing your opponent is closer to a coin flip (60 percent) than a certainty. 

Entering Saturday, teams that won all five categories (what we call a Quinfecta around these parts) were 274-0, and the vast majority of those 274 victories were not close. The average Quinfecta margin was around 30 points.


While the Red Raiders have had their fair share of struggles this season, they were able to land key victories against both Texas, and Oklahoma before watching them depart from the Big 12. With Texas Tech’s win in the record books, they finish off the season with an overall record of 7-5 and await their bowl game selection on Sunday.

To Top