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ESPN Predicts Big 12 With Worst Odds of Two College Football Playoff Teams

NCAA Football: Western Kentucky at Wisconsin

The current College Football Playoff format has been a sticking point for Big 12 fans pretty much since the idea’s inception back in 2014.

Following the 2014 regular season, TCU and Baylor both sat at 11-1 and tied as Co-Big 12 Champions, since there wasn’t a Big 12 title game at the time. When the CFP rankings were released after Week 15, the Horned Frogs and Bears found themselves on the outside looking in, ranked at No. 5 and No. 6, respectively.

It’s safe to say, the Playoff and the Big 12 just haven’t seen eye to eye most of the time, and that appears to be the case once again heading into the 2023 season.


According to ESPN, the Big 12 has the worst chance of any of the Power Five conferences of landing multiple teams in the Playoff this season.

The SEC leads the way with a 51% chance of landing multiple teams in the Playoff, with the Big Ten with the second-best odds at 25%, according to FPI.

Both the ACC and Pac-12 are listed at “less than 1% for multiple CFP teams,” with Heather Dinich saying the ACC’s chances should be much better than that.

Finally, the Big 12 comes in with “less than 1% for multiple CFP teams,” and Dinich saying she “strong agrees” with the prediction.


While the other Power 5 conferences are crowded with more established elite competition, the Big 12 might not have one great team, let alone two,” Dinich writes. “Even the Big 12’s best teams still have something to prove, starting with Texas, which hasn’t lived up to the hype in forever. While there should be improvement at Oklahoma in coach Brent Venables’ second season, the Sooners would need a quantum leap from last year’s 6-7 finish to enter the CFP conversation. Even with a better team, Oklahoma has little to no margin for error because of a nonconference schedule that includes Arkansas State (3-9 last year), SMU (7-6) and Tulsa (5-7). K-State also doesn’t have a strong enough schedule to make a compelling case to the committee without a Big 12 title. The Wildcats open against Southeast Missouri State, Troy and a respectable road trip to Missouri. TCU will have a tough time replicating last year’s CFP appearance without quarterback Max Duggan, running back Kendre Miller and receiver Quentin Johnston.

Dinich also notes that the Big 12’s best chances of landing two teams in the field is Texas beating Alabama, and the Tide winning the SEC. In addition to that, Texas would need to go undefeated or have one loss, perhaps in the Big 12 Championship. Then, a one-loss or undefeated Big 12 Champion plus Texas would give the conference a viable shot at two teams in the Playoff.

If this seems a bit convoluted, it probably is, especially with this being solely based on computer projections. Since when has a college football season gone exactly how it was supposed to? With around six weeks left until the season kicks off, it is officially prediction and projection season folks, so buckle up.

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