Baylor Bears

Baylor vs. Texas State: Preview, Prediction, and Game Odds

NCAA Football: Kansas at Baylor

Here is everything you need to know ahead of the matchup between the Baylor Bears and the Texas State Bobcats.


Saturday, September 2; 6:00 p.m. CT; McLane Stadium; Waco, Texas


Radio: Baylor Sports Network (John Morris, J.J. Joe, Ricky Thompson)

2022 Records: Baylor 6-7 (4-5 Big 12); Texas State 4-8 (2-6 SBC)

Rankings: N/A

Series History: Baylor leads, 9-0

Last Meeting: Baylor 42, Texas State 7 (2022)

Line: Baylor (-27.5)

Fun Fact: The Bears have absolutely dominated the Bobcats in the head-to-head series with Baylor outscoring Texas State 349-100 in the matchup’s history including a 75-0 blowout win back in 1916.





Sophomore running back Richard Reese was named to the First-Team All-Big 12 Preseason Team this offseason for a reason, and Saturday marks Reese’s first chance to prove his supporters right. Reese finished off his 2022 campaign just shy of a 1,000-yard rushing season as a true freshman, with 198 carries for 972 yards. The Texas native added 14 scores on the ground on an impressive 4.9 yards per carry behind a somewhat suspect offensive line. If Dave Aranda’s squad looks to improve in the upcoming season, the bulk of the offensive explosion will have to start with Richard Reese. I expect him to be on the move early against the Bobcats.


Baylor’s defense in 2022 was uncharacteristically bad for a Dave Aranda-led team. The defensive line was constantly pushed off the line of scrimmage by the majority of offensive lines in the Big 12 Conference, and if they want to improve as a unit this year, it all starts up front. Hall is one of the main men on the Bears front seven this season after finishing off 2022 with 36 total tackles, and four-and-a-half sacks. Hall’s size is perfect for that of an elite pass rusher in the league standing at a lengthy 6-foot-6, and a solid 287 pounds. Texas State’s offensive line has some holes in it and I fully expect Hall to boost Baylor’s pass rush this season.




While Texas State appears to be in for a tough matchup with Baylor on Saturday, one player that could become a problem for the Bears is Texas State wide receiver Ashtyn Hawkins. Hawkins brought in 56 catches last season in San Marcos, good for 587 yards and seven scores. While Hawkins may not get a high volume of targets on a consistent basis at Texas State, he has the type of big-play ability that keeps defensive backs awake the night before a big game. If left unchecked, Hawkins could prove to be an issue for Baylor’s secondary.


There is no better way to say it, Jordan Revels is a beast of a pass rusher. While Revels is definitely on the smaller side of the spectrum at the defensive end position, standing 6-foot tall and weighing 250 pounds, his production in 2022 earned him preseason honors from multiple voices grading the Sun Belt Conference. Revers was listed as a member of the Preseason All-Sun Belt Second Team, PFF Preseason All-Sun Belt First Team, Athlon Sports Preseason All-Sun Belt Second Team, and the Phil Steele Preseason All-Sun Belt Fourth Team. With 69 total tackles and four-and-a-half sacks in 2022, Revers will have an opportunity to continue his production against a Baylor offensive line that has been critiqued heavily this offseason.




How far away is Dave Aranda from sitting in the hot seat? The Bears are two seasons removed from ranking in the top 10 teams in the country, but after a major setback in 2022, Aranda’s security at his position has taken some hits. While the 9-0 record against Texas State is great and the coaching staff should have a good chance to stretch the record to 10-0, Baylor still has to answer a lot of unchecked questions in the team’s non-conference schedule, which is never a great recipe for a title contender. Texas State shouldn’t provide much of a challenge for Aranda’s bunch at face value, but if the team finds itself in the middle of a shaky performance in the season opener, things in Waco could get a bit more complicated going forward.


This game is about competition. Baylor is favored in the matchup by roughly four touchdowns. Texas State is coming off of a disappointing season in the Sun Belt Conference, finishing second to last in their division. Troy has been getting all of the hype this offseason in the SBC and while the team doesn’t have to finish the season off at 12-2 to improve on last year’s abysmal 4-8 record, a solid outing against a tough Baylor team can give players, coaches, and fans something positive to focus on heading into week two.


While I normally lean towards to more conservative sides when it comes to giant spreads in week one, Texas State is outmatched and outclassed. A motivated Dave Aranda-led team is a scary sight for anyone, especially when on the road to start off the 2023 season. I think Richard Reese is going to prove to fans that he deserves to be in the All-American conversation on a weekly basis and I believe that the Bears will get their tenth straight win in the all-time series against Texas State.

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