Best Big 12 Football Bets For Week 3

Posted on September 13, 2023

Welcome to Week 3! It’s a tougher card to find value in the Big 12 this week after last week’s tough luck, going 2-2 in Big 12 games (Thanks, Texas Tech).

BYU Cougars at Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, September 16th at 6:30pm CT

Arkansas -8.5, Total: 47.5 (Odds Via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let’s start in Fayetteville for a matchup we saw a year ago in Provo. In that matchup, the Hogs did whatever they wanted on offense. Arkansas racked up over 600 yards, nearly eight yards per play, and 52 points en route to a 17-point road win. Let’s fast forward to last week for Arkansas as they averaged less than five yards per play against Kent State. As we saw in Week 1, Kent State does not have a good defense as UCF put 56 on them and averaged nine yards per play. I don’t know what to fully expect out of the Hogs offense moving forward especially if KJ Jefferson is going to be inconsistent like he was a week ago. On the BYU side of things, it has not been the most inspiring 2-0 start to the season. The Cougars’ offense was awful in Week 1 against Sam Houston State, and their defense allowed almost six yards per play a week ago against FCS Southern Utah. Kedon Slovis had a much-needed bounce back against Southern Utah throwing for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. I think BYU’s defense is closer to what they were in their Week 1 shutout victory. I don’t see this being a high-flying offensive game like it was a year ago in Provo but I can’t go under a total in the high forties. With that said, I do like BYU to play Arkansas within a score. I expect Slovis to protect the ball and be a game manager in this one to keep the Cougars in the game and the defense will play well like they did in Week 1. We’ll take the points with BYU on the road.

PICK: BYU +8.5

Pittsburgh Panthers at West Virginia Mountaineers

Saturday, September 16th at 6:30pm CT

Pittsburgh -1, Total: 49 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Backyard Brawl! After a few years hiatus, these teams opened the season last year with Pitt winning 38-31 but WVU got the cover as a 7.5-point underdog. Both of these teams are different from what they were last September. I actually thought the Mountaineers played a reasonable game against Penn State in Week 1 before things got out of hand late (Franklin clearly knew the spread) and WVU is coming off a blowout win against FCS Duquesne. Quarterback Garrett Greene has been what you would’ve expected through the first two weeks, I expect him to be up to the task against Pitt this week. The Panthers are coming off a surprising loss to Cincinnati as the Bearcats pulled the outright upset in the Steel City. Pitt’s defense was bad in the first half before adjusting at halftime but the deficit was too large for BC transfer Phil Jurkovec to make up. Jurkovec has not looked the part through the first two games of the season for Pitt. Last week, he completed only 10 of his 32 attempts and struggled before Cincinnati’s defense softened up with a large lead. The question in this game is whether WVU’s defense will be up for the task against their big rival. Penn State averaged 7.4 yards per play which is a high number and if Pitt is remotely close to that it will mean a Panthers win for the second straight season against the Mountaineers. FCS Duquesne mustered only 3.9 yards per play against WVU last week if the defense can give an effort that is in between what they did against Penn State and Duquesne that should be enough for the Mountaineers to beat Pitt and move to 2-1 on the season. We’ll take West Virginia outright at -110 on the money line since most of the betting markets have this game as a pick’em instead of the Pitt -1 that DraftKings has.

PICK: West Virginia Moneyline -110

Wyoming Cowboys at Texas Longhorns

Saturday, September 16th at 7:00 pm CT

Texas -29, Total: 48.5 (Odds via Superbook)

Texas is back! Finally, that much-maligned statement looks to be true as the Longhorns were clearly the better team in Tuscaloosa last week and avenged last year’s loss to Alabama. The talent in Austin has never been the question and last week proved that once and for all. Quinn Ewers was very impressive, and the Texas defense was flying all over the field and was able to force Jalen Milroe into enough mistakes to win the game comfortably. Now a return home for one of the more obvious letdown spots we will see all of this college football season. Wyoming is 2-0 on the season as they followed up their upset win over Texas Tech with a lackluster two-touchdown win against FCS Portland State last week. The question for Wyoming in this game is the same as it was a few weeks ago against Texas Tech: Will they have enough offense to play this game within the spread? In the game against Tech, Cowboys Quarterback Andrew Peasley improved as the game went along and Wyoming was able to get back into the game because of that and their stout defense getting their legs underneath them. This is a really tough spot for Texas to cover over four touchdowns against a very well-coached team like Wyoming. The Horns will win but Wyoming will play this game within the 29 points.