It’s now Week 7 and there are five games on the Big 12 slate for the week. Here are the two plays in the Big 12 I like.
Thursday, October 12th at 6:00 p.m. CT
West Virginia -3, Total: 51.5 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Thursday Night Football in the Big 12! Both the Mountaineers and Cougars are both coming off their bye week and the vibes for each team are very different.
On the Houston front, the Cougars stumbled into the bye after a horrible second half in Lubbock. After playing a great offensive first half against Texas Tech, Houston was shut out in the second half as Dana Holgorsen and his staff yet again failed to make the proper adjustments at halftime. The Cougars are the worst team in the Big 12 according to my ratings (even though there is some competition for the last spot). Maybe a revenge game for Holgorsen against the program he coached for eight seasons will wake him and his staff up.
West Virginia went into their bye with an upset victory over TCU in Fort Worth. The Mountaineers have done with their defense this year, which was not expected. WVU has held their last four opponents under 5.5 yards per play and no one has scored more than 21 points. Garrett Greene is healthy again. In his first start back from injury, he was inefficient throwing the football but averaged nearly 7 yards per rush and scored twice with his legs. The big question in this game will be if Houston is capable of scoring more than 21 points. If the Cougars are, they will have a shot to pull the outright upset, but I don’t see that happening. I like WVU on the road to win and cover, allowing them to stay as one of two unbeatens in Big 12 play.
PICK: West Virginia -3
Saturday, October 14th at 6:00 p.m. CT
Texas Tech -1.5, Total: 56.5 (Odds via Caesars Sportsbook)
We are going back to the well in Lubbock to see if the third time is the charm in fading Texas Tech.
Kansas State is coming off of a brutal loss last Friday night in Stillwater, as Oklahoma State pulled the outright upset as a double-digit home underdog. The Wildcats are decimated on the defensive side with injuries, especially in their secondary which is a big concern moving forward. Will Howard threw three interceptions as K State was minus three in the turnover battle making it difficult for the Wildcats to overcome the injuries.
Texas Tech went to Waco and hammered Baylor in a game I got completely wrong last week. The resolve for these Red Raiders has been strong the last two weeks after losing Shough for the season with a broken fibula against WVU. The Red Raiders are going to be relying heavily on star Running Back Tahj Brooks the rest of the way. Brooks has been a workhorse the entire season but even more so since the Shough injury. If Tech is going to be able to win their third straight, they’ll need another big effort from Brooks and their defense, which was great last week in Waco.
With all of that said, Kansas State is too well-coached of a football team to drop back-to-back road games to inferior teams. I like Howard to bounce back and play well after a turnover-filled game last week. I like the Wildcats to get it done in Lubbock and win it outright but for the purposes of the column, K State +1.5 is the official play.
PICK: Kansas State +1.5
Leans for Other Big 12 Games…
I do have leans on the other three Big 12 games but none of them are official plays:
Purdue (+19.5) vs. Ohio State
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M
Washington (-3.0) vs. Oregon
Big 12 Bets: 1-2
Bonus Bets: 1-2