It’s Week 9 and there are six Big 12 games on the docket this week. Here are the Big 12 plays that I like this week.
Saturday, October 28th at Noon ET
Oklahoma -10, Total: 65.5 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’ve reached the final Saturday of October and the Sooners are still the only undefeated team left in the Big 12. Oklahoma was fortunate to win last week against a UCF team that looked significantly better with John Rhys Plumlee but even with Plumlee back, that game should not be coming down to stopping a two-point conversion The Sooners were held to an average of 5.3 yards per play on offense and the Knights were actually slightly more efficient than the Sooners. Dillon Gabriel and the offense did enough to win, but that type of effort against a better team may get Oklahoma beat, and any loss at this point would probably cost the Sooners a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Kansas is coming off their bye week, but in their last game the Jayhawks suffered a pretty perplexing loss in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. I know the Cowboys have stabilized the ship and have a backdoor path to get to Arlington now, but Kansas was in complete control until Jason Bean threw an interception when the Jayhawks were driving to go up by two scores. Jalon Daniels is not expected to be back on Saturday as he is still recovering from the back injury he re-aggravated in Austin about a month ago so Bean will get another start. Kansas has not defeated Oklahoma since 1997 and this will be the last time these teams play as members of the Big 12.
The last time the Sooners went to Lawrence two years ago, Caleb Williams had to save the Sooners from an embarrassing loss. This Kansas team can score on Oklahoma. It’s just a matter of getting enough stops in this one. I think the Jayhawks defense will be able to get enough stops to cover 10, give me the Jayhawks plus the points, and don’t be shocked if they pull the outright upset.
PICK: KANSAS +10
Saturday, October 28th at 11:00 a.m. CT.
UCF -7, Total: 59 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
It sure seems like the clock has struck midnight for West Virginia. After losing to Houston’s Hail Mary, the Mountaineers followed it up with a two-touchdown loss at home to Oklahoma State. WVU was the better side for three quarters and then allowed 28 points to the Cowboys in the 4th quarter. Three turnovers ended up swinging the game to Oklahoma State. The West Virginia defense which had been very good during the Mountaineers winning streak has come completely back to Earth as Oklahoma State averaged 7.1 yards per play. A little more consistency from the defense and Garrett Greene would go a long way to snapping the two-game skid.
UCF looked like a legitimate bowl team with John Rhys Plumlee back last week. They went punch for punch with Oklahoma and quite frankly were the better team for the majority of the game last week in Norman. A questionable two-point conversion call and just not enough stops in the 4th quarter were the difference. If the Knights play like they did last week, they’ll easily make a bowl game. It feels like UCF is trending upward and WVU is trending downward, I expect those trends to play out in this one. I like UCF to win their first conference game and cover the touchdown at the Bounce House.
PICK: UCF -7
Only two official plays for me this week in the Big 12. Even with only two plays, I’m very intrigued to see how Texas looks with Maalik Murphy likely in place of the injured Quinn Ewers. BYU has played over their heads so far this year but they could very easily stay in the game against the Texas backup.
Here are a few bonus plays for the road!
South Carolina +14 at Texas A&M
Nebraska -2.5 v Purdue
UNC -11 at Georgia Tech
Big 12 Bets: 3-0
Bonus Bets: 1-2