It’s Week 11 and there’s a full slate of seven Big 12 games on the docket this week. Here are the Big 12 plays that I like this week.
Saturday, November 11th at 6:00 p.m. CT
Oklahoma -12.5, Total: 58.5 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
What a year for the Mountaineers. Neal Brown came into the season with a very hot seat and now, he’s got WVU in Big 12 contention and on their way to a bowl game. The Mountaineers’ defense played a great game last week against BYU a week ago, but the task will get more difficult this week against Oklahoma.
The last two weeks have been a season-killing stretch for the Sooners. With losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, the Sooners have eliminated themselves from College Football Playoff contention. Now, a once-promising season will end in disappointment unless the Sooners can sneak into a New Year’s Six Bowl, which looks unlikely right now. The Sooners were outplayed in Lawrence two weeks ago but last week against Oklahoma State was a game in which OU was the better team but found a way to lose in the end.
The 4th down play call that ended the game last week was a testament to the question marks about Offensive Coordinator Jeff Lebby moving forward. It will be a legitimate decision for Brent Venables this offseason to keep Lebby or not. The Sooners need a big effort to turn this season back around and it would make a ton of sense for it to come in this game. WVU’s defense has struggled against the better offenses they have played this season and I would expect them to struggle again in Norman. Oklahoma rolls and covers the number.
PICK: Oklahoma -12.5
Saturday, November 11th at 6:00 p.m. CT
Houston -2.5, Total: 55 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
After last week’s win in Waco, the Houston Cougars have a backdoor chance at making a bowl game. Other than the beatdown the Coogs took at the hands of Kansas State, they have been better over the last month and now they get the worst team in the Big 12 at home with a chance to get to 5-5.
Cincinnati lost their seventh game of the year last week to get knocked out of bowl contention and there are plenty of questions about Scott Satterfield’s ability to improve this team. If I were running things at UC, I would start Brady Lichtenberg for the rest of the season to see what you have in him. Emory Jones ended up being a bust for Cincy and now that a bowl game isn’t in play, play the young guy at QB instead.
This game means much more to Houston than the Bearcats and at the moment the Cougars are a much better team. I like Houston to get their fifth win and give themselves a real chance of making a bowl game with Oklahoma State and UCF left on the schedule.
PICK: Houston -2.5
Saturday, November 11th at 9:15 p.m. CT
Iowa State -7, Total: 42.5 (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
We go to late night in Provo to wrap up the card for this week. Iowa State came back to Earth with a home loss last week against Kansas. There were a few moments where it looked like the Cyclones were going to be able to complete the big comeback but the hole was just too deep. On paper, this does look like a good matchup for Iowa State’s good defense as BYU’s offense has been a mess for most of the season but the last three games have been especially bad for the Cougars. Both of these teams are 5-4 and looking at both teams’ schedules, this seems to be the most winnable game for either squad.
BYU hosts Oklahoma and goes to Oklahoma State, while Iowa State hosts Texas and goes to Kansas State. Iowa State will be an underdog in both games and BYU will be a double-digit dog in both of their games. Looking at this game, I expect this to be a grind-it-out game but I am not interested in taking a total in the low 40s under, so I am taking BYU to play this game close. I do expect Iowa State to win but it will be a one-score game, so we will take the Cougars with the points.
PICK: BYU +7
Here are some bonus bets for the road.
Alabama -10.5 at Kentucky
Missouri +1.5 v Tennessee
USC +15.5 at Oregon
Big 12 Bets: 2-1
Bonus Bets: 2-1