Baylor Bears

What-If Wednesday: Big 12 Tiebreaker Week, Texas vs. Iowa State and Dave Aranda’s Warming Seat

NCAA Football: Oklahoma State at Iowa State

Welcome into our newest feature, we’re calling, “What-If Wednesday”. In this column, I’ll propose a handful of questions that, at this point, have not come to fruition. But IF they do, what will come out of it? What’s the end game?

Join us for this one and let’s have some fun.


What if Oklahoma State Didn’t Lose to UCF?

Well, we wouldn’t have found ourselves talking non-stop this week about tie-breaker-gate!

Say a prayer for our managing editor Bryan Clinton, who has done tremendous work this week trying to break down and make sense of the tiebreaker confusion around the Big 12.

Thankfully, the Big 12 clarified what every common-sense person understood to be fair: If there ends up with a three-way tie between Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Oklahoma, the Pokes will get to the Big 12 title game because they have head-to-head wins over the other two.

I don’t buy into any of the wild conspiracies floating around Norman or Manhattan, but it’s more than fair to say the rules lacked clarity, which allowed the confusion to set in from the beginning. So now, we have confirmation that head-to-head, in that scenario with KSU, OSU and OU, would matter, as it should.

But if Oklahoma State hadn’t lost to the Knights this past weekend, think of all the fun we would have missed out on these last few days!


What if Texas Leads Iowa State Heading Into the Fourth Quarter?

The game will be far from over.

Texas appears to be the best team in the Big 12. But they have had issues closing games in recent weeks.  Texas led TCU 26-6, but the Longhorns had to sweat out a 29-26 win on the road on Saturday night. But go back to October 21st, when the Longhorns led Houston 21-0, before having to hang on for a 31-24 win. And then last week vs. Kansas State, UT had a 27-7 lead, but then went to overtime against the Wildcats and won 33-30. That has to turn around with two tough games left against Iowa State and Texas Tech.

In Texas’ last two games, the Longhorns have been outscored 36-6 in the fourth quarter. That’s something Steve Sarkisian has to fix if this team is serious about a Big 12 Championship or a College Football Playoff appearance.

Because if he doesn’t fix that, the Longhorns will get picked off one of these next games weeks against the Cyclones or Texas Tech Red Raiders.


What if Baylor Loses Out?

Then Dave Aranda should have the hottest seat in the Big 12 going into 2024.

It’s inexcusable how this team has looked this season and how far they’ve fallen from their Big 12 Championship two years ago. They were projected to repeat to get to the Big 12 title game last year and finished 6-7. Now, if this season ends with a 3-9 record, woof.

Of their five Big 12 losses, one was close against Houston in overtime, but the others to Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State and K-State (all longtime Big 12 members), have been by a combined 25 points per game. It’s not like the Bears are out there losing a bunch of one-score games decided by a bounce here or there. These games aren’t competitive.

Also, the fan base appears to be totally checked out and ready for basketball, and can you blame them? It could be a long offseason in Waco depending how the next two weeks go against TCU and West Virginia.

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