Big 12 Bowl Mania: Ranking the Matchups by Confidence
As a college football fan, the month of December brings me great joy. Conference championship weekend kicks the month off with a bang and then before you know it, the most wonderful time of the year is here with the combination of bowl season and Christmas.
I can remember as a youngster watching all the shows leading up to the bowl season and then watching as many games as I could possibly handle. When I was sitting in my recliner on Sunday evening, I caught some of ESPN’s Bowl Mania show. Then I thought to myself, “Why not do a Big 12 Bowl Mania right here on Heartland College Sports?”
Here is how I am going to do it. I am going to rank each Big 12 bowl game from a confidence level. I will start with the bowl game I am most confident about and finish with the one that I am least confident in, when it comes to the Big 12 team winning.
*All Lines Provided by DraftKings
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas vs UNLV
Spread: Kansas (-12.5)
Over/Under: 64.5
UNLV has been a nice story this season in the group of five, but this game isn’t going to end well for the Rebels. Kansas has one of the best run games in the Big 12 with Devin Neal and Jason Bean at quarterback. That is going to be a mismatch for a UNLV defense that isn’t even in the top half of the Mountain West Conference.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M
Spread: Texas A&M (-3)
Over/Under: 53
Do the Aggies even have enough bodies to play this game? It feels like half their team is the transfer portal after Jimbo left. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has a chance to finish the season off with ten wins if they can beat A&M down in Houston. Plus, the Aggies don’t have a guy like Ollie Gordon II on their side. Give me the Pokes even though they are underdogs.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs Memphis
Spread: Iowa State (-8.5)
Over/Under: 57.5
Much like UNLV, Memphis quietly had a pretty good season finishing 9-3. They lit up the scoreboard all year long as they averaged 39.7 points per game and over 300 passing yards per game in the American Conference. The one flaw for the Tigers is their defense. The game plan for Iowa State should be to run the football and control the clock and that is what will likely happen here. And I trust their defense enough to slow down the Memphis offense.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs Arizona
Spread: Arizona (-3)
Over/Under: 62
This is a very interesting matchup here in San Antonio. You have a team in Oklahoma that is playing their final game as a member of the Big 12 Conference and will join the SEC next season and a team playing in their final game as a member of the Pac-12 Conference that will be in the Big 12 next season. As crazy as that is, this should be a great game. The Wildcats finished the season strong, and Oklahoma will be breaking in a new starting quarterback in five-star freshman Jackson Arnold. That being said, I still like the Sooners to end their season on a high note.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs Cal
Spread: Texas Tech (-2.5)
Over/Under: 58
This bowl game may not roll off the tongue very well, but this should be a fun game for Texas Tech in Shreveport. Cal isn’t a great team and I guess you could say the same about Tech here, but they really needed some time off to get healthy. With Behren Morton back to 100% (hopefully), the Red Raiders shouldn’t have any issues here at all.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs North Carolina
Spread: West Virginia (-5.5)
Over/Under: 56.5
UNC finished the season losing four out of their last six games with Drake Maye playing quarterback. And with his announcement to skip this bowl game makes me like West Virginia even more. The recipe for success is simple for West Virginia. They need to establish the run game and control the clock. That shouldn’t be too hard to do against the Tar Heels’ defense.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs Georgia Tech
Spread: UCF (-4.5)
Over/Under: 64.5
I expect a lot of rushing yards in this game because both teams are in the top two in their conferences when it comes to running the football yet both of them have the worst run defense in their conferences as well. I am not really sure where to go here but I will take the Knights because I trust John Rhys Plumlee more.
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Kansas State vs NC State
Spread: Kansas State (-3)
Over/Under: 47
Besides the playoff game, I am not very confident saying Kansas State will win this game. NC State is a solid ball club, and they finished the season strong by winning five in a row to end the year. Meanwhile, Kansas State will be giving true freshman Avery Johnson the start since Will Howard is gone. I keep flip-flopping on this one, but I think Johnson is athletic enough to cause some problems for NC State’s defense. Plus, Chris Klieman will have these guys ready to play.
CFP Allstate Sugar Bowl: Texas vs Washington
Spread: Texas (-4)
Over/Under: 64
To me, this is a coin toss game, even though Texas is favored. The Washington offense is legit with Michael Penix Jr., but I don’t think he has seen a defense like Texas possesses this season. The reason I am still picking the Longhorns to win is because I believe they can control the line of scrimmage against Washington. It will be a close one and the team with the football last could very well win this game. Buckle up.
