Independence Bowl Preview and Prediction: Texas Tech vs. Cal
Here is everything you need to know ahead of the matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the California Golden Bears.
GAME INFO
Saturday, December 16; 8:15 p.m. CT; Independence Stadium; Shreveport, LA
TV: ESPN/ESPN+
Radio: ESPN Radio
Records: Texas Tech (6-6); Cal (6-6)
Rankings: N/A
Series History: Texas Tech leads, 1-0-0
Last Meeting: Texas Tech 45, Cal 31 (2004)
Line: Texas Tech (-3)
Fun Fact: This will be the second all-time meeting between Texas Tech and Cal, with both times being in the postseason. Their first meeting, in the Holiday Bowl, ended in a 45-31 victory for Mike Leach and the Red Raiders (7-4) after Holiday Bowl MVP Sonny Cumbie torched the Cal (10-1) defense, completing 40 of 60 attempts for 520 yards passing and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
KEY PLAYERS
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
RB TAHJ BROOKS
Texas Tech received a huge boost after its 6-6 season when the Red Raiders learned that Tahj Brooks will return for the 2024 season despite being NFL-ready as it is. In 2023, Brooks ranked fourth nationally and second in the Big 12 with 1,443 rushing yards this season, trailing only Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon (1,614). He’s also fourth nationally and second in the Big 12 with 120.2 yards per game on the ground. Brooks did lead the Big 12, and the nation with 91 forced missed tackles (per PFF) and 83 rushes for first downs (per PFF).
LB BEN ROBERTS
Redshirt freshman linebacker Ben Roberts was named the Co-Defensive Freshman of the Year in the Big 12 in 2023, after recording 100 tackles (2nd among FBS freshmen), 5.0 tackles for loss, 0.5 sack, two forced fumbles, and an interception on the year. Roberts was a bright spot for the Red Raiders’ defense this season and is a very promising cog for Joey McGuire to build his team around going forward.
CAL BEARS
RB JAYDN OTT
What a running back matchup we’re set for in this game. Jadyn Ott is to Cal what Brooks is to Texas Tech, and his 1,260 rushing yards on the year rank seventh in FBS. The speedy sophomore out of Chino (Cal.) has 13 touchdowns on the season and has a season-long rushing score of 66 yards. Ott is also a major threat for the Golden Bears in the return game, taking the opening kickoff against UCLA back 99 yards for a score to start off a 33-7 beatdown to get to bowl eligibility.
LB CADE ULUAVE
Talk about parallels in opponents. Just as Ben Roberts did for TTU, freshman linebacker Cade Uluave burst onto the scene for Cal in 2023 and became a key playmaker for them down the stretch. Uluave was selected as the Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year after recording 58 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, one of which he returned for a touchdown, two interceptions, and three pass breakups.
KEY STORYLINES
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
How much success does Tahj Brooks have against Cal’s rushing defense? The Golden Bears rank 39th nationally in rush defense, allowing 134.1 yards per game on the ground. Additionally, they allow 3.84 yards per carry, which is just slightly better than Kansas State and West Virginia’s numbers. Tech ran for 182 and 160 in those games, respectively, and lost both contests. If Tahj Brooks can get going early in this one, and Behren Morton looks closer to 100%, the Tech offense should have success, even with several pieces missing thanks to the portal.
CAL BEARS
Texas Tech’s rushing defense, on the other hand, was an issue in 2023. The Red Raiders rank 94th nationally allowing 167.7 rushing yards per game and 4.49 yards per carry. The biggest question for Cal is, what will the offense look like? Offensive coordinator and QB coach Jake Spavital is now with the Baylor Bears, leaving Cal to figure things out for the bowl game. If the offensive staff can find a way to keep balance and give Jaydn Ott the ball frequently, it could be a successful game plan.
PREDICTION: TEXAS TECH 31, CAL 27
Texas Tech’s last game of the season wasn’t indicative of how well they played down the stretch, winning three consecutive games to get to bowl eligibility before running into a buzzsaw in Austin. After a 3-5 start, getting to 6-6 and into the Independence Bowl is a great turnaround. Now, the Red Raiders can turn in a third consecutive winning season, something they haven’t done since 2008-10. I like Joey McGuire’s team coming off a few weeks of rest, and having Behren Morton back to health is going to be a major boost for the Tech offense. I expect Zach Kittley to have a good game plan to attack a vulnerable secondary for Cal, opening up some paths for Tahj Brooks to lead them to a seventh victory on the year.
