Way-Too-Early Big 12 Football Power Rankings for 2024
The 2023 college football season will officially come to an end on Monday night when either Michigan or Washington is crowned as the National Champion.
As for the rest of the country, the offseason has already begun as coaching staffs and rosters get set for their 2024 season.
The Big 12’s season officially came to an end on New Year’s Day, when Texas failed to take the lead with less than a minute to go from Washington’s 13-yard line, losing 37-31.
The Longhorns, and their rivals, Oklahoma, are headed to the SEC, while the Big 12 prepares to onboard four new schools with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah all set to join the league next season.
With the bowl season behind us, the coaching changes all but wrapped up, and the transfer portal window closed, we’ve seen most of the movement that we will see this offseason.
That gives us enough information to take a look ahead to what the league might look like next season. With that, here’s a look at Heartland College Sports’ Way-Too-Early Big 12 football power rankings for 2024.
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2023 Record: 10-4 (7-2 Big 12)
Oklahoma State capped off its season with a 31-23 victory over Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl, but the exciting news in Stillwater is what has happened since then. The Pokes have several stars returning for the 2024 season including QB Alan Bowman, LB Collin Oliver, WR Brennan Presley, S Kendal Daniels, and of course, RB Ollie Gordon.
The Pokes will likely be the betting favorite to win the conference in their first year, and if they aren’t, they won’t be outside the top three.
2. Arizona Wildcats
2023 Record: 10-3 (7-2 Pac-12)
Jedd Fisch and the Wildcats are coming off the best season in recent history at Arizona with just the fourth 10-win season in program history. It wasn’t a cupcake schedule either, as the Wildcats faced Washington, Oregon State, USC, Utah, and Oklahoma, going 4-1 in those contests.
With 18 of 22 starters returning next season, including freshman phenom quarterback Noah Fifita, Arizona is going to be one of the frontrunners for the Big 12 crown in 2024.
3. Utah Utes
2023 Record: 8-5 (5-4 Pac-12)
Utah struggled with inconsistency at quarterback in 2023 and still managed to win eight games under Kyle Whittingham. That shouldn’t be an issue in 2024 though, as the Utes will be getting Cam Rising back for another season. Under Whittingham, Utah has been a consistent winner, and that won’t change as long as he’s on the sideline.
With Rising under center and several starters from one of the top defenses in the country, Utah will be a Big 12 contender from Day 1.
4. Kansas State Wildcats
2023 Record: 9-4 (6-3 Big 12)
Like Utah, Kansas State has been wildly consistent under head coach Chris Klieman, and while his tenure isn’t nearly as long as Whittingham’s is in Salt Lake City, it’s safe to assume that Klieman’s group will be in the mix. With DJ Giddens returning at running back and a strong defensive culture in Manhattan, the Wildcats will be tough and physical on both sides of the ball.
If they can figure out the offensive line, K-State appears to have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country with Avery Johnson taking over, and that makes them a team to watch in 2024.
5. UCF Knights
2023 Record: 6-7 (3-6 Big 12)
This might come as the first shocker on the list, but UCF has a chance to surprise a lot of folks next season. The Knights showed flashes of brilliance this season and were painfully close to winning eight or nine games. Now, they’ve got an impressive portal haul highlighted by Arkansas transfer QB KJ Jefferson. With RB RJ Harvey and WR Kobe Hudson both returning, there’s plenty of offensive talent.
Defensively, UCF will have to improve, but portal additions like Jesiah Pierre and Deshawn Pace should help tremendously. Watch out for Gus Malzahn and the Citronauts.
6. Kansas Jayhawks
2023 Record: 9-4 (5-4 Big 12)
The good news? Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, Luke Grimm, and Lawrence Arnold are all coming back in 2024. The bad news is Kansas is losing a ton of experience along an offensive line that was quietly the strength of the team. If new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes can put something together and help the new scheme transition over, Kansas should be good once again.
Defensively, KU has improved in each of the last two seasons and if that happens again the Jayhawks could finish much higher than six on the list.
7. West Virginia Mountaineers
2023 Record: 9-4 (6-3 Big 12)
West Virginia might be the best story in college football that nobody is talking about. Neal Brown was on his last breath as the head coach in Morgantown, but turned in a 9-4 season after being picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 this season. Garrett Greene is back, as are Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson. The offensive line is going to see a lot of turnover, but should still be good enough to work with.
Defensively, the Mountaineers are losing some key playmakers, and much of their success in 2023 was due to a very favorable schedule to end the season. Brown will have another chance to prove everyone wrong again in ’24, although it won’t be because they’re picked to finish last.
8. Iowa State Cyclones
2023 Record: 7-6 (6-3 Big 12)
Iowa State will return Rocco Becht at quarterback and Abu Sama should be the lead back in 2024. That alone gives them a dangerous offensive attack. However, the story with the Cyclones is always Jon Heacock and that defense. While TJ Tampa is NFL-bound, the ISU defense will return several key players and should be among the league’s best units once again.
Matt Campbell and the Cyclones haven’t handled preseason hype well in the past, but there will certainly be some after he took such a young team to the Liberty Bowl.
9. Texas Tech Red Raiders
2023 Record: 7-6 (5-4 Big 12)
Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders fell on their face out the gate in 2023, losing three of their first four games. However, Texas Tech won four of their last five and finished the year above .500 despite such a disastrous start. Tahj Brooks will once again be the focus offensively and Behren Morton started to look like a legitimate starter at times this year.
If Morton can take another step and the defense can replace a couple of players in the secondary, this team could be the dark horse that they were dubbed to be this time last year.
10. TCU Horned Frogs
2023 Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)
Missing a bowl game after going to the national championship game in 2022 doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in what TCU brings to the table for 2024. However, Josh Hoover showed that he’s capable of running a high-tempo offense for Sonny Dykes and that’s certainly a promising development heading into the offseason. The Horned Frogs are once again attacking the transfer portal as well as anyone in the Big 12 and will have as much talent as anyone in the league.
If new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos can get things figured out for the TCU defense, this team could take a step forward in Sonny Dykes’ third season.
11. BYU Cougars
2023 Record: 5-7 (2-7 Big 12)
Kalani Sitake and the BYU Cougars were a 2OT loss to Oklahoma State away from being in a bowl game, which would’ve changed the entire narrative for the offseason. However, they missed out on bowl season and are back to the drawing board at several positions. The addition of Gerry Bohanon gives the Cougars an experienced quarterback who knows what it takes to win in this league.
All-Big 12 defender Tyler Batty returns in 2024 and gives BYU a piece to build around defensively, but they’ll need to improve in a big way on that side of the ball to compete.
12. Colorado Buffaloes
2023 Record: 4-8 (1-8 Pac-12)
Deion Sanders and Colorado lost seven of their final eight games in 2023, with the vast majority of their issues stemming from play along the line of scrimmage. As a result, Sanders has added 11 players from the transfer portal along the offensive and defensive line. Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and Dylan Edwards is probably the best trio of offensive skill in the Big 12, but they’ll need space to operate after the Buffs gave up almost five sacks a game and ranked as one of the worst rushing attacks in the country.
If Coach Prime can figure out the offensive line and play better against the run defensively, there’s no ceiling to how high this team could finish.
13. Houston Cougars
2023 Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)
At some point, Willie Fritz is going to turn Houston into a Big 12 contender. He’s too good a coach and it’s too great a location for them to continue failing. However, Dana Holgorsen did him no favors with the roster that he left behind. This team will need to portal well after losing several key playmakers, but if there’s anyone who knows how to pull talent out of H-Town, it’s Fritz.
There are pieces in place for Houston to be much more competitive in 2024, but it might be a year before the Cougars start to push themselves up the Big 12 ladder.
14. Arizona State Sun Devils
2023 Record: 3-9 (2-7 Pac-12)
Just before Arizona State’s first game in the 2023 season, former athletic director Ray Anderson informed Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils that they wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason. That set the tone for a tough year in Tempe, as ASU lost several close, winnable games. Dillingham is one of the most promising young coaches in football and he’ll have the Sun Devils competing sooner rather than later.
I expect a step forward for ASU this season, but bowl contention could be tough given just how deep the new-look Big 12 will be.
15. Baylor Bears
2023 Record: 3-9 (2-7 Big 12)
Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears are coming off the worst season of his tenure, and that includes the 2022 season when they 2-7. A couple of years ago, Aranda was the hottest name in the country after taking the Bears from 2-7 to 12-2 and a Big 12 Championship. Now, he’s coaching for his job. With Jake Spavital taking over as offensive coordinator and Toledo transfer Dequan Finn at quarterback, the offense should get a shot in the arm. However, the defense needs to improve in a big way for Baylor to get out of the gutter.
This season is pivotal for Aranda and the Bears, and with several new faces in the room, there’s going to be plenty of pressure to stack wins.
16. Cincinnati Bearcats
2023 Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12)
The Scott Satterfield experiment got off to a rough start in 2023 as Cincinnati managed just one victory in Big 12 play. The Bearcats had a bad habit of getting in their own way and with costly turnovers and untimely penalties, the losses piled up quickly. Emory Jones wasn’t what UC fans had hoped he would be and the offense stalled regularly despite having a good running attack behind Corey Kiner.
To get off the bottom of the pile in 2024, Cincinnati will need to play better pass defense and find a solution at quarterback, or at least someone who won’t turn over the football. Is Brendan Sorsby that guy?
