Predicting Each Big 12 Men’s Basketball Postseason: NCAA Tournament, NIT or Nothing?
Most consider the Big 12 Conference to be the most rigorous conference in college basketball, and it’s easy to see why.
Consider this — one Twitter user earlier this week noted that in remaining strength of schedule for the season that the Top 14 teams were all in the Big 12. The vast majority of the league is the Top 75 in NET, which means most road games will be Quad 1 victory opportunities for the road team.
Entering the weekend eight Big 12 teams are in the NCAA Tournament, per ESPN Bracketology, with another two or three on the bubble.
As Olivia Rodrigo sang, “It’s brutal out there.”
The Big 12 men get started on Saturday and the 18-game gauntlet to the Big 12 Tournament begins. Then, March Madness. Who’s going to make it?
Well, I have a bit of a cheat code. I’ve mined data from the last six full Big 12 seasons to see what the benchmarks are for a postseason team (we’ll include the NIT here, too). Here’s what I’ve learned.
Teams that win 10 or more games in non-conference and at least 20 games by the Big 12 Tournament are going to the NCAA Tournament. That’s a lead-pipe lock, data-wise.
Teams that win 10 or more games in non-conference and don’t win at least 20 games by the Big 12 Tournament usually make either the NCAA Tournament or the NIT. Four teams have won 10 or more in non-conference but failed to make it to any postseason.
Teams that win nine or fewer games in non-conference can find their way to the postseason, but a lot depends on how they do in Big 12 action. The rate is less than 50 percent.
Think of it like this — 10 non-con wins plus 10 conference wins equals the NCAA Tournament.
With four new teams and a non-round robin schedule for the first time in more than a decade, applying this formula for this season should be interesting.
Below is how each team fits into the formula and my projection for March, based on the data.
Baylor
Baylor went 11-2 in non-conference. Baylor has been the postseason in every season of the sample and they’ve made the NCAA Tournament every season in which they won double-digits in non-con and had 20 wins before Kansas City. Baylor only needs nine wins to lock in their ticket.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
BYU
BYU went 12-1 in non-conference. If you’re applying the formula to the Cougars, they need eight wins in Big 12 play before Kansas City. There is precedent for winning 11 and missing the postseason entirely. It’s happened twice — West Virginia in 2021-22 (11-1/4-14/15-16) and Texas Tech in 2016-17 (11-1/6-12/18-13). So, BYU would have to really fall hard to miss March Madness.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
UCF
The Knights went 9-3 in non-conference. Of the 17 teams to finish under 10 wins in non-conference, seven of them made the postseason. Of those seven, each won at least eight league games. That would get the Knights to 17 wins and probably close enough to a postseason berth. But, the formula isn’t in their favor.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: Nothing
Cincinnati
The Bearcats went 11-2 in non-conference. The point’s been made. Nine wins before Kansas City will get the Bearcats into the NCAA Tournament. Fewer than that and the Bearcats are probably going the postseason, but it will all depend on the Big 12 record.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Houston
The Cougars went 13-0 in non-conference and are the only undefeated team left in the league. Five teams in the sample went undefeated in non-conference and all won at least 20 games and made the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars only need seven league wins before Kansas City.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Iowa State
The Cyclones were 11-2 in non-conference. The odds are in their favor, based on the data. The Cyclones can lock in an NCAA berth with nine wins before Kansas City. They’ve made it each of the last two years under coach T.J. Otzelberber — once at 12-0 going into Big 12 play and once at 9-2.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Kansas
Kansas went 12-1 in non-conference. I mean it’s Kansas, but let’s apply the formula. Kansas had at least 10 league wins and more than 20 overall wins going into the Big 12 Tournament every year of the sample.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Kansas State
Kansas State went 10-3 in non-conference. The data says yes, but the eye test says “ehhh.” As with BYU, the Wildcats would really have to fall off the map to miss the postseason entirely. KSU needs to win 10 league games before KC to lock it in. The data says they’re probably going to some sort of postseason play.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Oklahoma
Oklahoma went 12-1 in non-conference. The Sooners look to be in great shape, as they only need eight wins before Kansas City to lock it in. But the Sooners haven’t won more than seven league games in either of their first two seasons under coach Porter Moser. That included a 10-2 non-conference in 2021-22. But, both seasons with 11 or more non-con wins in the sample yielded an NCAA berth for the Sooners.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were 8-5 in non-conference. The Cowboys are part of an outlier group of six eight-win teams in non-conference in this sample that have all made some sort of postseason. Last season the Cowboys started 8-4, went 8-10 in Big 12 play and got into the NIT. Somehow, the Cowboys fall in a data set that could get them in a postseason tournament.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NIT
TCU
TCU went 11-2 in non-conference. The last three seasons the Horned Frogs won at least 10 non-conference games and reached either the NCAA Tournament or the NIT each year. When they don’t win at least 10 non-con games, the Horned Frogs either reach the NIT or miss the postseason.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Texas
Texas went 11-2 in non-conference. The Longhorns should be in good shape based on the data. The last two seasons the Longhorns have won at least 10 non-conference games, won at least 20 games before Kansas City and reached the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NCAA
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders went 11-2 in non-conference. As noted, last year’s team went 10-2 and failed to make any postseason after going 5-13 in league play. The same thing happened to the Red Raiders in 2016-17 when they went 11-1. They’re the only team this has happened to twice. That’s not a good omen. But, the data backs up a postseason invite, but I think they’re going to fall short of the NCAAs.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: NIT
West Virginia
The Mountaineers went 5-8 in non-conference. Two teams in the data set went .500 in non-conference. Both failed to make the postseason. Not a single Big 12 team has finished under .500 in non-con in the sample.
NCAA, NIT or Nothing: Nothing
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard
