Way-Too-Early 2024-25 College Football Playoff Projections
The four-team College Football Playoff era came to a close on Monday night with Michigan’s 34-13 win over Washington to be crowned the 2023-24 national champion.
Michigan needed just two wins to take home the CFP trophy, but that won’t be the path for any team going forward, as the 12-team Playoff era will begin in the 2024 season.
The 12-team format is currently a “6+6” system, with auto-bids for the five “Power Conference” champions and the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion, and six at-large bids. However, the expectation is that the format will be adjusted to a “5+7” bid system with five auto-bids and seven at-large bids with the loss of the Pac-12.
Under the assumption that that happens, what will the playoff look like next season? Here’s my way-too-early projection for the field of 12, which I hope also clears up some of the confusion on how the seeding will work.
Editor’s Note: Please remember folks, this is a way-too-early prediction for next season that will help us understand how the 12-team playoff will work.
The Auto-Bids
SEC Champion – No. 1 Georgia (12-1)
Georgia drops its first regular season contest in three seasons as Alabama gets the better of them in SEC play. However, with a second chance in the SEC title game, the Bulldogs pick up a win and secure the top overall seed.
Big Ten Champion – No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
The Buckeyes are finally rid of Jim Harbaugh and with him gone, they finally break the losing streak. While they lose a Big Ten matchup with Oregon in Eugene, the rematch in the Big Ten title game goes Ohio State’s way, giving them the No. 2 seed.
Big 12 Champion – No. 3 Oklahoma State (12-1)
Oklahoma State drops one game in the regular season but goes the rest of the way unscathed. Then, in their biggest test of the season, Mike Gundy and the boys knock off an undefeated Arizona team in the Big 12 Championship to steal the first-round bye.
ACC Champion – No. 4 Clemson (11-2)
Clemson starts off where they finished in 2023 after winning each of their last five games. After taking No. 1 Georgia to the wire, the Tigers look like they did just a few seasons ago the rest of the way. With a dominant performance through ACC play, Dabo and the boys secure a first-round bye.
Highest-Ranked G5 Champ – No. 12 Liberty (12-1)
Jamey Chadwell and the Liberty Flames make it two straight C-USA titles and gets elevated to the No. 12 spot in the final College Football Playoff rankings of the year.
At-Large Bids
No. 5 Alabama (11-2)
The Crimson Tide fall short of an SEC title with a loss to Georgia in the Championship game but do get in as the runner-up after splitting with them on the year and finishing 11-2.
No. 6 Oregon (11-2)
The Ducks beat Ohio State in the regular season matchup but drop the rematch in the Big Ten title game. Still, Oregon is in at 11-2.
No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1)
Notre Dame gets through their season with one loss, and it comes in Week 1 against the Texas A&M Aggies. After that, the Irish rip off 11 straight wins and get into the 12-team playoff despite not being part of a Power Four conference.
No. 8 Arizona (12-1)
Arizona enters the Big 12 title game at 12-0 and is on the verge of securing a first-round bye in the playoff. However, Mike Gundy and the Cowboys had other ideas, pulling off the upset for their first win in the Big 12 Championship. At 12-1 though, the Wildcats are in.
No. 9 Michigan (10-2)
With Jim Harbaugh and a host of players gone from the Championship run in ’23, Michigan drops two games against Texas and Ohio State. However, with both of those teams in the playoff, the Wolverines are in as well.
No. 10 Ole Miss (10-2)
Lane Kiffin continues to thrive as one of the best recruiters of the transfer portal but still falls short of an SEC title with losses to Oklahoma and Georgia. As one of the top teams in the SEC though, Kiffin and the boys are in.
No. 11 Oklahoma (10-2)
Oklahoma takes losses to Auburn and Alabama in 2024 but is able to get by in the remainder of their schedule to get to 10 wins for the second under Brent Venables. Only this time, it gets them into the College Football Playoff.
The Matchups
First Round
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Liberty
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa Alabama; Dec. 20, 2024
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Oklahoma
Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana; Dec. 21, 2024
No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 Ole Miss
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon; Dec. 21, 2024
No. 8 Arizona vs. No. 9 Michigan
Arizona Stadium, Tuscon, Arizona; Dec. 21, 2024
How it works: teams seeded 5-8 will host their opponents in the first round of the 12-team playoff, so even if they don’t earn a bye week, there is still an incentive to finish higher than ninth.
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Georgia vs. Arizona/Michigan
Peach Bowl; Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia; Thursday, Jan. 1
No. 2 Ohio State vs. Oregon/Ole Miss
Fiesta Bowl; State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona; Wednesday, Dec. 31
No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame/Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl; Caesars Super Dome, New Orleans, Louisiana; Thursday, Jan. 1
No. 4 Clemson vs. Alabama/Liberty
Rose Bowl; Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California; Thursday, Jan. 1
How it works: the top four teams will be coming off an extra week of rest and will host winners of the first round at the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl in 2024.
Semifinals
Orange Bowl; Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida; Thursday, Jan. 8
Cotton Bowl; AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas; Friday, Jan. 9
National Championship
CFP National Championship Game; Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia; Monday, Jan. 1
How It Will Look
Now that you’ve seen the details, here is what things would look like for the bracket!
