Which Big 12 Bubble Teams Will Make NCAA Tournament?
While the recent bracketology update from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi featured a whopping ten Big 12 teams in the field for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, it’s likely to assume that things could look drastically different over the coming months.
In the past few updates, Lunardi has bounced around the likes of Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Texas, and TCU on both sides of the bubble, which leads fans to wonder, which Big 12 bubble teams are going to earn a tournament bid?
Starting off with teams ranked the highest of the five in the latest bracketology update, who’s going to end up dancing come March Madness? Here’s my predictions as we head into late January.
TEXAS TECH – YES
Grant McCasland’s Texas Tech squad is currently listed as an No. 8 seed in the latest update facing a first-round matchup against Boise State. While the seeding still needs to work itself out over the next few weeks, I do believe that Tech will earn a bid to the big dance. Texas Tech is currently tied with Kansas State for first place in the Big 12 after starting off 4-1, and while the team may not have the talent to keep up with teams like Houston and Kansas on paper, I believe that McCasland is a heck of a basketball coach and will lead his team for the tournament thanks to their success in the half court offense, and gritty determination on defense.
TCU – YES
While I know that the recent streak of losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State is a tough load to manage for the Horned Frogs, TCU’s style of basketball poses a problem for the majority of teams in the league. The Horned Frogs are a coinflip from 4-1 in the league, if the team could have avoided the flagrant call against Kansas in Lawrence and find one more basket against No. 23 Iowa State. But I see TCU sneaking in. While the Big 12 Conference is known for some of the most incredible home-court advantages in all of basketball, the one thing that travels is defense. TCU’s game plan of speeding teams up, forcing turnovers, and scoring in transition should be enough to manage a 9-9 or even 10-8 record down the stretch in conference play.
KANSAS STATE – YES
Similar to Texas Tech, Kansas State is currently tied for first place in the league with a 4-1 record. Lunardi has bounced back and forth on Jerome Tang’s squad, listing them on both sides of the bubble numerous times this season. As it currently sits, the Wildcats earned a No. 11 seed in the latest update, and I expect that to remain consistent throughout the year. While the Wildcats lost their best player, Nae’Qwan Tomlin, to Memphis ahead of conference play, the Wildcats have found ways to win ugly, and in the Big 12 Conference, any win is a big deal. While the Wildcats have a brutal two-game road stretch up next against No. 23 Iowa State and No. 4 Houston, Kansas State has a winnable schedule down the stretch which should earn themselves a bid to the 2024 NCAA Tournament as long as the big three for K-State continues to show up in Carter, Kaluma, and Perry.
CINCINNATI – BARELY
Cincinnati feels like the toughest team to place in the field so far, but the decision to list them comes down to two things:
- The size and length of players like Aziz Bandaogo, Jamille Reynolds, and Viktor Lahkin are a brutal thing to face off against.
- Wes Miller is an outstanding head coach.
The Bearcats are currently listed as a No. 12 seed in the recent update, and I could genuinely see them sneaking in as the last team in. What Wes Miller is doing in his first season in the Big 12 is incredibly impressive and I believe the Bearcats have what it takes to be a consistent problem for the majority of teams in the league. Give me Cincinnati to make the tourney in Year One of their time in the Big 12.
TEXAS – NO
Currently with Texas, it’s best to go with subject matter. We have seen the Longhorns upset a likely top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament in Baylor, but we’ve also seen them lose to West Virginia and UCF. The Longhorns continue to play with fire in their wins and are two missed game-winners away from staring at a 0-5 conference record. It’s not simply chalking it up to, “If you take away their wins, they are bad,” it’s basing it off this team’s continued issues of going through unbelievable cold stretches. For Texas to sneak into the tournament Dylan Disu has to play like a First-Team All-Big 12 level player, along with Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter lighting it up in the backcourt. While the Longhorns do have a puncher’s chance at making the field, they play five straight games against what I expect to be NCAA Tournament teams including No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 21 BYU, No. 4 Houston, TCU, and No. 23 Iowa State. If I were hooked up to a lie detector test making the pick, I’d say that Texas likely misses the tournament.
