HCS Roundtable: Will the Big 12 Have Two CFP Teams in 2024?
This week has brought some exciting news regarding the College Football Playoff. We’ve seen the official announcement of a new format, moving from the original 6+6 model to a new 5+7 model after the dissolution of the Pac-12.
Then, we heard the rumors that either the Big Ten or the SEC is pursuing four auto bids in future playoffs. Yes, four auto-bids for a single conference.
We’ve also seen reports of an intriguing discussion among college football’s decision-makers that could see the already expanded playoff get even bigger, as a 14-team playoff seems to be on the table.
Now, whether you’re a fan of those changes or not, they will directly affect the Big 12, one way or another. With that being the case, there’s simply too much happening in the college football world for us to sit idly by and wait for football season to start these discussions.
So, starting this week, we are bringing back the roundtable where each staff member shares their thoughts on a given topic.
This week’s question: Does the Big 12 have two College Football Playoff teams in 2024? Discuss.
Pete Mundo
No.
The Big 12 will likely be the most unpredictable and exciting college football product in 2024, but I can’t see how two Big 12 teams end up in the Playoff. The scenario would have to include an undefeated and one-loss team in the Big 12 Championship Game, two one-loss teams, or a two-loss team pulls an upset in the Conference title game against an undefeated team, with the previously undefeated team slipping in as an at-large.
I don’t see any of those scenarios playing out. The Big 12 is just going to be a complete roller coaster in 2024. Plus, I think the committee is, sadly, going to give preferential treatment to the SEC to prove a point in Year One of the Playoff.
While I hate to be a pessimist, I can’t see it happening in 2024, but I’d love to be wrong.
Bryan Clinton
When this question was first proposed, to be honest, my immediate answer was no. But I’m not the kind of person who can draw conclusions based on emotion, so I started digging. There will be some regulars involved in the 12-team playoff. I have no doubt whatsoever that Georgia and Ohio State will be in the field. Heck, I feel pretty good about Texas, Oregon, and even Notre Dame all getting back into the Playoff.
However, I have some questions about some of the other teams. Three of the four Playoff teams from last season all have new coaches. How will Alabama fare post-Nick Saban? How will Washington and Michigan look in the new-look Big Ten?
When I started tallying off teams that were locks to get in, and teams that had a good shot, I realized at least one team from the Big 12 is all but guaranteed to get in, and about five others have a very good shot. With teams like Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Kansas State, Kansas, and West Virginia all looking confident going into spring ball, I actually love the Big 12’s chances of getting two teams into the Playoff in 2024.
Matthew Postins
At this point, I lean toward the Big 12 not getting two teams in next year’s College Football Playoff. I envision the 2024 season as being highly competitive, which is probably going to lead to some of the parity we’re seeing in Big 12 basketball this season. So it will all hinge on how that second-place team is perceived.
For instance, there’s no way the CFP committee would have taken Oklahoma State after its loss to Texas in December. But what about Kansas State after it beat TCU in the 2022 Big 12 title game? That is the kind of scenario that, I think, would allow the Big 12 a good chance to get two teams in the CFP. For that to happen with an unbalanced schedule, you probably need two dominant teams that don’t play each other in the regular season and go undefeated in non-conference. I have a hard time seeing that happen.
Derek Duke
The good news is that now no matter what happens, the Big 12 will have their conference champion in the playoffs. That itself is progress from the old four-team playoff format. With that said, of course, there will still be some flaws such as having 70-plus-year-old men pick the schools who get in.
If you ever seen a picture of the playoff committee watching the games, it would mirror one of people in a nursing home watching college football. All jokes aside, this whole 5+7 format is clearly going to favor the Big Ten and the SEC. Why? Because all those “top 25” teams have to look good on a resume, regardless no matter if they win or lose. If you win, it’s a quality win and if you lose, it’s a quality loss. Unfortunately, the Big 12 can’t do that but I think there is a good chance of them getting two teams in this upcoming year. There are 5-6 teams right now that I believe are worthy of competing for a conference title and I could see two of them in the playoff next year.
Joe Tillery
At face value, the quick answer feels like no, but I will play devil’s advocate here and say yes. The Big 12 Conference has a multitude of teams that can make a run at the CFP in 2024 if that ball bounces their way, including Kansas State, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and even Texas Tech/UCF.
My prediction for two teams from the league to wind up in the CFP is if a team like Kansas State or Oklahoma State can win a Big 12 title and become the league’s auto-bid, Arizona or Utah could sneak in due to the size of the brand and view of the program in the media. It should go without saying that the team would likely only be allowed one or two losses to find their way into the CFP, but if the cards fall right, I will say yes to the league having two representatives in 2024.
