Best Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinal Picks Against the Spread
Thursday will bring the Quarterfinal Round of the 2024 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament with four fantastic matchups.
BYU and Texas Tech will kick things off (11:30 AM | ESPN2), followed by TCU vs. Houston (2:00 PM | ESPN) in the afternoon window. Kansas State vs. Iowa State will pick things back up at 6:00 PM (ESPN2), with Cincinnati vs. Baylor (8:30 PM | ESPN/ESPN2) closing out the round.
Here’s a look at the two best picks from a betting perspective in Thursday’s action!
No. 8 TCU (21-11) vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars (28-3)
Houston -11, Total: 137.5 (Odds via SuperBook)
The Cougars begin their run for the Big 12 Championship double against a team that upset them. Back on January 13th, TCU held on for a one-point victory in Fort Worth against Houston, and that win is a big reason why the Horned Frogs are safely in the NCAA Tournament. Now, the rematch in Kansas City brings TCU an opportunity to move up seeding lines for the Big Dance if they can pull off a second upset.
The Horned Frogs handled their business on Wednesday, dispatching Oklahoma 77-70. TCU has been a wildly inconsistent bunch this year, and the results have shown that. In order to stay in the game, the Horned Frogs will need Jameer Nelson Jr. and Emanuel Miller to have big games.
Houston is basically locked into the #1 seed in the South Region for the NCAA Tournament. This is Kelvin Sampson’s best team at UH because they have more ways to beat you on offense than they have had in the best, and the big reason for that is their guard play of Shead, Cryer, and Sharp. The Cougars have always been amazing on defense under Sampson, and this team is no exception, as they are once again #1 in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Now, for this game, Houston has their eyes set on a bigger prize than a Big 12 Tournament Champion, and for TCU, an upset in this game not only removes every shred of doubt they could have on Selection Sunday but likely would move them up to the 7 seed line.
I expect this game to be tight the whole way, not sure if TCU can pull the outright upset but I do like them to cover a big number in this one.
PICK: TCU +11
No. 10 Kansas State (19-13) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (24-7)
Iowa State -8, Total: 132.5 (Odds via SuperBook)
The evening slate in downtown Kansas City starts off with the most intriguing game of Thursday’s card.
The Wildcats erased a double-digit halftime deficit on Wednesday against Texas to win and keep their slim hopes at an NCAA Tournament at-large bid alive. Tylor Perry and Arthur Kaluma carried the load on offense during the comeback, but a surprise 13-point effort from David N’Guessan proved to be the difference. The Cats also clamped down on the Longhorn offense in the second half, and they’ll need a similar defensive effort against the Cyclones.
These two teams met in Manhattan less than a week ago, and K State prevailed thanks to a swarming defensive effort. Iowa State was held to 0.87 points per possession (K State was held to only 0.97 points per possession on offense). My big concern about Iowa State moving forward is their offense away from Hilton Coliseum, their defense will overwhelm overmatched teams but the Wildcats are not overmatched in this spot.
I expect another big game from Tyler Perry, and I like Kansas State to cover this game. Don’t be surprised if they pull off the outright upset yet again to keep their at-large hopes alive.
PICK: Kansas State +8
