Big 12 Teams on Upset Alert in the First Round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament begins on Thursday morning, with No. 6-seed BYU taking on No. 11-seed Duquesne to get the action started for the Big 12.
There are eight Big 12 teams in action over the first two days of the tournament, and all eight of them are favored to win their matchups and move into the Round of 32. However, favorites don’t always win in March; that’s why they call it March Madness.
So, which Big 12 teams are on upset alert and could be sent packing earlier than expected? Let’s take a look.
Kansas (-7.5)
Opponent: No. 13 Samford (29-5)
This No. 4 vs. No. 13-seed matchup has everyone feeling antsy to take the Bulldogs after Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar will miss the tournament due to injury. KU does get back Second-Team All-American Hunter Dickinson, but this is a bad matchup for Kansas.
As Self pointed out earlier this week, the Jayhawks have struggled against teams proficient from three-point range. Samford is dangerous from deep, shooting 39.3% from behind the arc, which is good for sixth nationally. Overall, the Bulldogs are shooting 49.3% from the floor (7th nationally) and average over 85 points per game.
Will KU overcome the loss of its leading scorer and avoid a one-and-done? They’re 1-4 over their last five games and -50 in score differential over the last two losses.
TCU (-4.5)
Opponent: No. 8 Utah State (27-6)
Coming out of the Mountain West, Utah State is more battle-tested than most people will give them credit for. Great Osobor is the key for the Aggies, scoring 18.0 points and grabbing 9.2 rebounds per game, and I expect him to create a matchup issue for the Horned Frogs.
I’m also curious what we see out of Emanuel Miller, who left in the first half of the Oklahoma game in Kansas City last week after rolling his ankle. Though it looked scary, he did return and proceeded to play his full share of minutes against Houston the next day. The only problem is, he scored a season-low three points in 34 minutes.
If Miller is at full strength, I like TCU’s chances to advance, but if he can’t be the dynamic scorer that we saw down the stretch of Big 12 play, Utah State could be the team moving on to the Round of 32 to take on the winner of Purdue-Grambling.
Texas (-2.5)
Opponent: Colorado State (25-10)
Another Mountain West opponent that should be taken seriously, Colorado State presents one heck of a challenge for Rodney Terry’s group in the first round. The Rams defeated a paltry Virginia squad on Tuesday in the First Four games, and come into this matchup much better than brackets are giving them credit for.
KenPom ranks Texas 27th and Colorado State just behind them at 29th. The NET rankings have Texas at No. 30 and CSU at No. 36. History also suggests that coming out of the First Four could be play in the Rams’ favor. A First Four team has reached the second round in 11 of the last 12 tournaments, with VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021) even making Final Four runs.
I’m not suggesting that CSU will march all the way to Glendale, but they could certainly beat Texas in the opening round. Texas is 5-5 over its last 10 games and was bounced in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament by Kansas State. The Longhorns do have Max Abmas, who’s gone over 25 points in two of their last three games and has plenty of experience in the NCAA Tournament. If he can’t shoot the lights out of the gym, there’s no telling how far UT could go. However, they’d better just focus on getting past Colorado State for now.
